Re: Decay watch: MSTI 2 & Molniya 3-11
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 28 Nov 1998 15:38:36 +0000
The latest elset for MSTI 2 ...
MSTI 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 d 162 x 155 km
1 23101U 94028A 98332.53320945 .08876867 23575-5 42484-3 0 9459
2 23101 97.0061 177.8021 0005104 253.2647 106.8246 16.42811808259111
...shows it 13 seconds late on the prediction I posted yesterday.
My SatEvo-predicted decay time has slipped further to a northbound
equator crossing near 104 deg E longitude at November 29.02 (00.27 UTC
+- 2 hours). This is two orbits later than the last prediction received
from Harro's analysis using the MPM program.
Prediction:
MSTI 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 d 156 x 150 km
1 23101U 94028A 98332.65494204 .09989405 76781-1 30749-3 0 99459
2 23101 97.0054 177.9380 0004375 252.7491 107.2030 16.44927692259131
MSTI 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 d 152 x 147 km
1 23101U 94028A 98332.71575578 .11630152 10888+0 27779-3 0 99458
2 23101 97.0049 178.0061 0003961 252.4909 107.4658 16.46236619259147
MSTI 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 d 148 x 143 km
1 23101U 94028A 98332.77651716 .14061494 16837+0 25309-3 0 99450
2 23101 97.0044 178.0742 0003499 252.2324 107.7294 16.47786826259154
MSTI 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 d 142 x 138 km
1 23101U 94028A 98332.83721523 .18106497 30079+0 23458-3 0 99455
2 23101 97.0038 178.1424 0002967 251.9735 107.9942 16.49715267259162
MSTI 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 d 135 x 132 km
1 23101U 94028A 98332.89783139 .26474765 71840+0 22712-3 0 99450
2 23101 97.0029 178.2107 0002316 251.7141 108.2607 16.52342861259171
MSTI 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 d 122 x 120 km
1 23101U 94028A 98332.95832435 .58448514 43375+1 26601-3 0 99453
2 23101 97.0016 178.2792 0001387 251.4540 108.5309 16.56895116259187
---------------------------------
Molniya 3-11's latest elset is
Molniya 3-11 3812 x 89 km
1 11240U 79004A 98332.33590547 .22894607 13605-4 53107-3 0 480
2 11240 61.9805 345.4808 2234999 284.7920 51.9252 11.42215858149130
This is 58 seconds early with respect to yesterday's evolution.
My current decay estimate is December 3.6 +- 1.5 day.
Prediction:
Molniya 3-11 3519 x 89 km
1 11240U 79004A 98333.02750907 .23748621 11689-1 52476-3 0 90484
2 11240 61.9794 344.0371 2095741 284.9510 52.9056 11.73033160149214
Molniya 3-11 3290 x 89 km
1 11240U 79004A 98333.53391750 .25664282 12158-1 54158-3 0 90480
2 11240 61.9771 342.9312 1983790 285.0729 53.9256 11.98042254149274
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/