MSTI decay imminent
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 28 Nov 1998 22:52:33 +0000
The latest elset ...
MSTI 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 d 141 x 136 km
1 23101U 94028A 98332.83721961 .19317511 24025-5 22512-3 0 9498
2 23101 97.0035 178.1464 0004102 261.9401 98.1350 16.50263207259165
indicates that it was but 1.4 seconds early against the "9945" evolution
I posted earlier today.
I now favour decay at the southbound equator crossing over the Brazilian
rainforest near 65 deg west longitude at 23:43 UTC. It might survive to
the following northbound (ascending node) crossing at 104 deg E at 00:27
UTC and perhaps beyond. Harro's decay prediction for the northbound
crossing at 23:00 is also quite possible. I note that the orbit takes it
southwards over Newfoundland at 23:31 UTC, over the Lesser Antilles in
the eastern Caribbean 8 minutes later and onwards over Venezuela
(23:41), Brazil, the Peru/Bolivia border (23:47) and down the length of
Chile.
Should it survive until the next rev, its track would take it close to
Niagara Falls and Buffalo, NY, at 00:59 UTC and southwards to the
Florida Panhandle at 01:02.
My predicted elsets:
MSTI 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 d 133 x 129 km
1 23101U 94028A 98332.89779799 .31101927 11326+1 23892-3 0 99498
2 23101 97.0025 178.2148 0003075 261.6807 98.2844 16.53040407259177
MSTI 2 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 d 116 x 114 km
1 23101U 94028A 98332.95824774 1.01775935 26946+2 34651-3 0 99493
2 23101 97.0005 178.2833 0001444 261.4204 98.5632 16.59211420259183
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/