Decay watch: Nov 23 08:38 UTC

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 23 Nov 1999 08:47:20 +0000

I have just updated my Decay Watch page with an updated prediction for
#22016 = 92- 39 C = GPS 2-14 r2.

I show this decay at Nov 23 14:01 UTC +-4h, nominally near 34.7 deg N,
96.4 W. In fact, it is 14 hours since SpaceCom published the latest
elset for this, so my decay prediction remains uncertain by several
orbits. A re-entry in the vicinity of perigee, near the northbound
equator crossing over the Pacific at 170.9 deg E at 13:37 UTC, is
possible. However, I continue to show it surviving that perigee to decay
somewhere around the next orbit, but where is anyone's guess at present.
The track takes it over Honolulu, HI, at 13:46 UTC, Los Angeles at 13:56
then eastwards across the USA to Oklahoma City at 14:01, my nominal
decay point. It reaches Charleston, SC, at 14:04. SpaceCom's latest
decay warning, timed at 04:20 UTC today, has an earlier decay at Nov 23
10:22 +-9h (!) at 34.7 S, 132.6 E. My predicted elsets for the next few
orbits run...
GPS 2-14 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d 3.51       278 x 123 km
1 22016U 92039C   99327.38479483  .41081936  42921+0  74304-3 0 98831
2 22016  34.5894  78.5631 0118009 358.5175   1.4479 16.27196830178744
GPS 2-14 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d 3.51       250 x 121 km
1 22016U 92039C   99327.44603977  .51308810  78323+0  75406-3 0 98838
2 22016  34.5883  78.1101 0098198 359.1746   0.8094 16.32793692178759
GPS 2-14 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d 3.51       213 x 118 km
1 22016U 92039C   99327.50704459  .73105123  19978+1  77451-3 0 98832
2 22016  34.5868  77.6549 0072810 359.8350   0.1626 16.40178283178760
GPS 2-14 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d 3.51       154 x 109 km
1 22016U 92039C   99327.56769878 1.80351211  26546+2  83282-3 0 98833
2 22016  34.5845  77.1961 0034274   0.5006 359.5028 16.52911500178776

My Decay Watch update also includes a further notice for #25934 = 99- 55
B = GPS 2R-3 Delta 2 r1. SpaceCom has still to issue its final notice
for this. I show decay following northern apex over China as it tracked 
ESE-wards across S Japan and over the Pacific. My predicted elset for
the final nodal crossing:
GPS2R-3 Dlt2 r1  5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 d   14       147 x 113 km
1 25934U 99055B   99326.91794464  .92401322  57093+1  45071-3 0 91116
2 25934  33.3201  62.7107 0026117  81.8445 278.4515 16.53452099  7303

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe'
in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org
http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html