Decay watch: 2000 Nov 6

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Nov 06 2000 - 13:27:31 PST

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    Yet another update to my Decay Watch page...
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25032 = 97- 67 C = GPS 2-28 r2 (PAM-D)
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Nov  5 08:47     Nov  9 09:10 +-3d        33.5 N    14.7 W
    SatEvo     Nov  6 21:20     Nov  9 19:43 +-22h
    
    Latest elset:
    GPS 2-28 r2                                      829 x 136 km
    1 25032U 97067C   00311.49956646  .08694712  00000-0  81716-3 0  3486
    2 25032  34.8204 117.7950 0505090  27.6630 335.0641 15.27720812 76851
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25069 = 97- 75 C = JCSat-5 Ariane 44P rocket
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Nov  6 19:53     Nov  6 15:36 +-6h         4.0 N   108.3 E
    SatEvo     Nov  6 21:00     Nov  6 15:23 +-3h         3.4 N    66.4 E
    
    Final elset:
    JCSat-5 Ariane 44P r                             603 x 108 km
    1 25069U 97075C   00311.19659919  .34382328 -32074-4  56554-3 0  4160
    2 25069   4.1623 292.1980 0367361  41.5358 319.4808 15.71142687 41834
    
    Note: The final elset, one of four issued for that orbit, shows this
    running 2.5 min late against the prediction I posted yesterday. 
    SpaceCom appears to have lost it well before decay. I show decay
    near perigee on the second of these two SatEvo-predicted orbits:
    JCSat-5 Ariane 44P r                             296 x 95 km
    1 25069U 97075C   00311.57121613 1.37901983  37803+1  75740-3 0 94162
    2 25069   4.1608 288.9908 0153255  47.9249 313.3686 16.28913031 41899
    JCSat-5 Ariane 44P r                             157 x 90 km
    1 25069U 97075C   00311.63187270 5.87964167  50000+2  14148-2 0 94161
    2 25069   4.1603 288.4391 0051191  49.0239 311.4181 16.56074682 41905
    This has it over the Indian Ocean, to the W of the Maldives. SpaceCom's
    decay location is further E on the same rev, over Malaysia. The
    uncertainty is several revs.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
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