USA 129 search elements

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@home.com)
Date: Thu Nov 30 2000 - 16:33:02 PST

  • Next message: Alexander M: "Unknown Observation"

    Further to my earlier message, I have now produced search elements for each of
    the 11 possible manoeuvre times during the interval after USA 129 was last seen
    and first reported missing.
    
    The object's last known orbit was:
    
    USA 129         15.0  3.0  0.0  5.1 v
    1 24680U 96072A   00334.84947917  .00053030  00000-0  76638-3 0    00
    2 24680  97.8152  35.0609 0465688 158.9846 203.1304 14.84495183    05
    
    I recommend first looking for the object in this orbit, in case it has not
    manoeuvred. It may well be that the object was not seen because it was fainter
    than usual. If it does not appear at the predicted time, then it may be found
    in one of the attached 11 post-manoeuvre orbits.
    
    Plotting all 11 orbits probably is not necessary. I suggest initially plotting
    elset # 70010 and 70000 to bracket the earliest and latest arrival times and
    paths. If the angular distance between those paths is much wider than your
    optics' field of view, then I recommend plotting a few of the intermediate
    orbits.
    
    These orbits should be reasonably predictive, since they are based on the
    object's historical behaviour. They are based on raising the apogee at the time
    of perigee passage. There were 11 perigee passages during the interval when the
    object went missing. The epoch time and mean anomaly correspond to the moment
    of perigee passage. The effects of the manoeuvre have been treated as an
    instantaneous single impulse. Prediction accuracy of the individual orbits
    should be accurate to within a few minutes of time for a few days.
    
    Happy hunting!
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    1 70000U          00334.87885417  .00040000  00000-0  60988-3 0    06
    2 70000  97.8152  35.0898 0513000 158.8882   0.0000 14.73500000    03
    
    1 70001U          00334.94622685  .00040000  00000-0  60988-3 0    01
    2 70001  97.8152  35.1561 0513000 158.6667   0.0000 14.73500000    01
    
    1 70002U          00335.01357639  .00040000  00000-0  60988-3 0    05
    2 70002  97.8152  35.2224 0513000 158.4454   0.0000 14.73500000    01
    
    1 70003U          00335.08094329  .00040000  00000-0  60988-3 0    07
    2 70003  97.8152  35.2887 0513000 158.2240   0.0000 14.73500000    08
    
    1 70004U          00335.14829861  .00040000  00000-0  60988-3 0    02
    2 70004  97.8152  35.3550 0513000 158.0026   0.0000 14.73500000    07
    
    1 70005U          00335.21566667  .00040000  00000-0  60988-3 0    03
    2 70005  97.8152  35.4213 0513000 157.7812   0.0000 14.73500000    04
    
    1 70006U          00335.28302546  .00040000  00000-0  60988-3 0    05
    2 70006  97.8152  35.4877 0513000 157.5598   0.0000 14.73500000    00
    
    1 70007U          00335.35039352  .00040000  00000-0  60988-3 0    06
    2 70007  97.8152  35.5540 0513000 157.3383   0.0000 14.73500000    09
    
    1 70008U          00335.41775000  .00040000  00000-0  60988-3 0    01
    2 70008  97.8152  35.6203 0513000 157.1169   0.0000 14.73500000    07
    
    1 70009U          00335.48510764  .00040000  00000-0  60988-3 0    03
    2 70009  97.8152  35.6866 0513000 156.8955   0.0000 14.73500000    02
    
    1 70010U          00335.55246528  .00040000  00000-0  60988-3 0    07
    2 70010  97.8152  35.7529 0513000 156.6741   0.0000 14.73500000    02
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Nov 30 2000 - 16:33:55 PST