Decay watch: 2002 November 13

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Nov 13 2002 - 15:28:50 EST

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     From my updated Decay Watch page:
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26772 = 01- 20 C = USA 158 (GeoLITE) Delta 2 r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Nov 13 11:46     Nov 14 11:20 +-17h       13.8 N    42.2 W
    SatEvo     Nov 13 20:10     Nov 14 11:22 +-6h        24.2 N     9.6 W
    
    Latest elset:
    USA 158 Delta 2 r2                               1068 x 114 km
    1 26772U 01020C   02317.75212196  .45855418 -60017-5  14238-2 0   275
    2 26772  26.4682 155.5244 0684380 348.5631  10.3567 14.92223121  8051
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    USA 158 Delta 2 r2                               871 x 109 km
    1 26772U 01020C   02318.01677003  .69613921  27968+0  15084-2 0 90274
    2 26772  26.4621 153.7341 0554221 351.5699   7.5359 15.25286864  8091
    USA 158 Delta 2 r2                               614 x 106 km
    1 26772U 01020C   02318.27508049 1.11334105  10804+1  16735-2 0 90273
    2 26772  26.4538 151.8901 0376870 354.6671   4.9426 15.69599292  8136
    USA 158 Delta 2 r2                               415 x 104 km
    1 26772U 01020C   02318.40094917 1.94541312  45098+1  20029-2 0 90277
    2 26772  26.4483 150.9385 0234531 356.2657   3.5623 16.05501905  8151
    USA 158 Delta 2 r2                               225 x 100 km
    1 26772U 01020C   02318.46253585 5.58174323  50000+2  29072-2 0 90276
    2 26772  26.4412 150.4494 0095729 357.0874   2.8572 16.41382120  8165
    
    Note: SatEvo has dealt rather poorly with this decayer, giving a
    consistently late decay. I now put the decay soon after the epoch
    of the final SatEvo-predicted elset, over Mauritania on the approach
    to northern apex.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27452 = 02- 31 C = Iridium 98 Breeze rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Nov 13 17:33     Nov 16 17:46 +-2d        79.5 N    72.2 E
    SatEvo     Nov 13 20:20     Nov 16 17:22 +-22h
    
    Latest elset:
    Irid 98 Brze r   5.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d  9.4       254 x 166 km
    1 27452U 02031C   02317.60081354  .02489686 -14888-5  57838-3 0  2340
    2 27452  86.5377  15.8799 0067196  90.6157 270.2809 16.23548351 22824
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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