Decay watch: 2002 November 26

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Nov 26 2002 - 15:06:33 EST

  • Next message: leo barhorst: "Obs Nov 26"

    My predictions for the two Astra 1K decayers, taken from my updated 
    Decay Watch page. Both should be visible over Europe before dawn 
    tomorrow.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27557 = 02- 53 A = Astra 1K
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
    SCC        Nov 26 14:47     Nov 29 11:51 +-2d        21.8 N   173.2 E
    SatEvo     Nov 26 19:20     Nov 28 17:41 +-14h
    
    Latest elset:
    Astra 1K                                         190 x 174 km
    1 27557U 02053A   02330.56558808  .01499049  12211-4  20731-3 0    61
    2 27557  51.5683  56.7494 0012523 166.0822 194.0614 16.34051446   109
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Astra 1K                                         187 x 171 km
    1 27557U 02053A   02330.81010681  .02001767  24262-2  24834-3 0 90062
    2 27557  51.5680  55.3759 0011992 167.1117 192.9189 16.35044113   145
    Astra 1K                                         184 x 169 km
    1 27557U 02053A   02331.05449739  .02207932  34824-2  24543-3 0 90063
    2 27557  51.5678  54.0011 0011424 168.1422 191.8846 16.36069852   189
    Astra 1K                                         180 x 166 km
    1 27557U 02053A   02331.29872615  .02503950  46819-2  24527-3 0 90060
    2 27557  51.5674  52.6251 0010803 169.1736 190.8496 16.37217146   221
    Astra 1K                                         176 x 163 km
    1 27557U 02053A   02331.54277171  .02921955  68291-2  24631-3 0 90067
    2 27557  51.5670  51.2478 0010105 170.2061 189.8135 16.38534764   263
    Astra 1K                                         172 x 160 km
    1 27557U 02053A   02331.78660366  .03543691  10645-1  24804-3 0 90064
    2 27557  51.5666  49.8688 0009302 171.2398 188.7764 16.40100390   303
    Astra 1K                                         166 x 155 km
    1 27557U 02053A   02332.03017642  .04568062  18681-1  24406-3 0 90062
    2 27557  51.5660  48.4878 0008341 172.2751 187.7377 16.42052573   343
    
    Note: Eclipse entry occurs northbound near 40 deg S in the evening,
    with eclipse exit just after northern apex near 51 deg N before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27558 = 02- 53 B = Astra 1K Blok DM3 r
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Nov 26 08:59     Nov 27 17:31 +-20h       39.7 N   122.6 E
    SatEvo     Nov 26 19:55     Nov 27 12:13 +-6h        13.0 S     7.7 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Astra 1K Blok DM3 r                              176 x 160 km
    1 27558U 02053B   02330.68647740  .02363353  12371-4  18123-3 0    90
    2 27558  51.5717  56.0354 0012885 278.0076  81.9424 16.39213183   120
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Astra 1K Blok DM3 r                              172 x 156 km
    1 27558U 02053B   02330.80831797  .05018223  18443-1  32010-3 0 90090
    2 27558  51.5714  55.3456 0012169 278.5245  81.3376 16.40696878   140
    Astra 1K Blok DM3 r                              163 x 150 km
    1 27558U 02053B   02331.05174434  .06985733  39906-1  24498-3 0 90094
    2 27558  51.5706  53.9636 0010434 279.5602  80.3219 16.43556880   186
    Astra 1K Blok DM3 r                              150 x 139 km
    1 27558U 02053B   02331.29464830  .13208008  17028+0  19791-3 0 90092
    2 27558  51.5694  52.5777 0007825 280.5989  79.3129 16.48096219   226
    Astra 1K Blok DM3 r                              144 x 135 km
    1 27558U 02053B   02331.35525017  .17624024  32024+0  19418-3 0 90097
    2 27558  51.5689  52.2302 0006832 280.8593  79.0637 16.49936164   237
    Astra 1K Blok DM3 r                              136 x 129 km
    1 27558U 02053B   02331.41577240  .27652172  84607+0  20196-3 0 90094
    2 27558  51.5682  51.8821 0005492 281.1202  78.8179 16.52575718   240
    Astra 1K Blok DM3 r                              122 x 118 km
    1 27558U 02053B   02331.47616585  .63238856  43819+1  23174-3 0 90095
    2 27558  51.5672  51.5330 0003338 281.3819  78.5805 16.57505881   257
    
    Note: I have this decaying near the southbound equator crossing on
    the last of these SatEvo-predicted revs. This puts it to the west
    of Angola.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    
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