As Harro has noted, SCC is posting decay notices for two debris objects from the Cosmos 2399 launch. So far only one elset has appeared for each object. In addition, the decay of the Cosmos 2397 aux motor may well be accelerated by the current geomagnetic storm - there has been an impressive aurora over Edinburgh during the past hour, including colourful streamers radiating from almost overhead in an auroral corona. The display, though, may now be subsiding. This is a summery of the update I have just made to my Decay Watch page. _____________________________________________________________________ Object: #27778 = 03- 15 D = Cosmos 2397 aux motor Decay predictions: Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude UTC UTC deg deg SCC Nov 19 20:29 Nov 21 14:35 +-1d 7.3 S 82.3 W SatEvo Nov 20 19:44 Nov 21 12:06 +-13h 45.0 N 74.7 E Latest elset: Cosmos 2397 aux motor 4109 x 102 km 1 27778U 03015D 03324.15256061 .63908681 22424-4 27965-2 0 2362 2 27778 47.2858 208.1385 2361211 74.1911 310.8012 11.11096925 5648 SatEvo prediction: Cosmos 2397 aux motor 2816 x 100 km 1 27778U 03015D 03324.83050865 1.29372102 36436+0 39068-2 0 92366 2 27778 47.2557 206.0293 1732965 76.2141 302.4033 12.51653195 5726 Cosmos 2397 aux motor 2280 x 97 km 1 27778U 03015D 03325.06332838 1.63877100 68104+0 37691-2 0 92368 2 27778 47.2243 205.1726 1442793 77.0372 298.6404 13.19119720 5758 Cosmos 2397 aux motor 1666 x 92 km 1 27778U 03015D 03325.28310796 2.36647150 19016+1 35599-2 0 92366 2 27778 47.1907 204.2656 1084686 77.9100 294.0175 14.04368513 5786 Cosmos 2397 aux motor 1423 x 90 km 1 27778U 03015D 03325.35306097 2.85784691 30849+1 35505-2 0 92363 2 27778 47.1777 203.9487 0934544 78.2153 292.1055 14.40646952 5790 Cosmos 2397 aux motor 1142 x 87 km 1 27778U 03015D 03325.42104444 3.70125594 63674+1 35891-2 0 92369 2 27778 47.1617 203.6223 0754304 78.5300 289.8391 14.84618807 5803 Cosmos 2397 aux motor 784 x 85 km 1 27778U 03015D 03325.48662749 5.77674778 19933+2 39261-2 0 92369 2 27778 47.1465 203.2831 0512773 78.8573 286.8629 15.44075186 5818 Note: The next elset is well overdue. The perigee height in the latest elset and in my prediction may be a few km too high. In any case, the prediction remains uncertain, not only because of the lack of new elsets but also because of the geomagnetic storm that is raging at present. I have tried to compensate by a increasing the predicted drag - without this, the decay would occur much later, at perhaps 21:30 UTC. My guesstimate is for this to decay near perigee on the orbit represented by the final predicted elset, above. This puts it over Kazakhstan following a daylight pass over SE Europe. _____________________________________________________________________ Object: #28084 = 03- 35 C = Cosmos 2399 deb Decay predictions: Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude UTC UTC deg deg SCC Nov 19 23:41 Nov 23 12:34 +-2d 4.1 N 122.1 E SatEvo No prediction at present Latest elset: Cosmos 2399 deb C 284 x 197 km 1 28084U 03035C 03323.79731577 .02240654 71795-5 13911-2 0 74 2 28084 64.9176 207.6011 0066363 73.9354 286.9446 16.12334608 181 Note: So far, only one elset has appeared for this. _____________________________________________________________________ Object: #23085 = 03- 35 D = Cosmos 2399 deb Decay predictions: Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude UTC UTC deg deg SCC Nov 19 23:41 Nov 22 23:15 +-2d 4.5 N 35.7 W SatEvo No prediction at present Latest elset: Cosmos 2399 deb D 282 x 194 km 1 28085U 03035D 03323.92124602 .02253899 71940-5 12925-2 0 76 2 28085 64.9180 207.1464 0066282 75.0464 285.8484 16.13328466 208 Note: So far, only one elset has appeared for this. _____________________________________________________________________ Alan -- Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum) Edinburgh / SatEvo Home Page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ * ----------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe from SeeSat-L, send a message with 'unsubscribe' in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@satobs.org List archived at http://www.satobs.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Nov 20 2003 - 15:34:26 EST