Decay watch: 2003 November 20

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Nov 20 2003 - 15:28:42 EST

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    As Harro has noted, SCC is posting decay notices for two debris objects
    from the Cosmos 2399 launch. So far only one elset has appeared for each
    object. In addition, the decay of the Cosmos 2397 aux motor may well be
    accelerated by the current geomagnetic storm - there has been an
    impressive aurora over Edinburgh during the past hour, including
    colourful streamers radiating from almost overhead in an auroral corona.
    The display, though, may now be subsiding.
    
    This is a summery of the update I have just made to my Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27778 = 03- 15 D = Cosmos 2397 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Nov 19 20:29     Nov 21 14:35 +-1d         7.3 S    82.3 W
    SatEvo     Nov 20 19:44     Nov 21 12:06 +-13h       45.0 N    74.7 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 2397 aux motor                            4109 x 102 km
    1 27778U 03015D   03324.15256061  .63908681  22424-4  27965-2 0  2362
    2 27778  47.2858 208.1385 2361211  74.1911 310.8012 11.11096925  5648
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Cosmos 2397 aux motor                            2816 x 100 km
    1 27778U 03015D   03324.83050865 1.29372102  36436+0  39068-2 0 92366
    2 27778  47.2557 206.0293 1732965  76.2141 302.4033 12.51653195  5726
    Cosmos 2397 aux motor                            2280 x 97 km
    1 27778U 03015D   03325.06332838 1.63877100  68104+0  37691-2 0 92368
    2 27778  47.2243 205.1726 1442793  77.0372 298.6404 13.19119720  5758
    Cosmos 2397 aux motor                            1666 x 92 km
    1 27778U 03015D   03325.28310796 2.36647150  19016+1  35599-2 0 92366
    2 27778  47.1907 204.2656 1084686  77.9100 294.0175 14.04368513  5786
    Cosmos 2397 aux motor                            1423 x 90 km
    1 27778U 03015D   03325.35306097 2.85784691  30849+1  35505-2 0 92363
    2 27778  47.1777 203.9487 0934544  78.2153 292.1055 14.40646952  5790
    Cosmos 2397 aux motor                            1142 x 87 km
    1 27778U 03015D   03325.42104444 3.70125594  63674+1  35891-2 0 92369
    2 27778  47.1617 203.6223 0754304  78.5300 289.8391 14.84618807  5803
    Cosmos 2397 aux motor                            784 x 85 km
    1 27778U 03015D   03325.48662749 5.77674778  19933+2  39261-2 0 92369
    2 27778  47.1465 203.2831 0512773  78.8573 286.8629 15.44075186  5818
    
    Note: The next elset is well overdue. The perigee height in the
    latest elset and in my prediction may be a few km too high. In any case,
    the prediction remains uncertain, not only because of the lack of
    new elsets but also because of the geomagnetic storm that is raging
    at present. I have tried to compensate by a increasing the predicted
    drag - without this, the decay would occur much later, at perhaps
    21:30 UTC. My guesstimate is for this to decay near perigee on the
    orbit represented by the final predicted elset, above. This puts
    it over Kazakhstan following a daylight pass over SE Europe.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #28084 = 03- 35 C = Cosmos 2399 deb
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Nov 19 23:41     Nov 23 12:34 +-2d         4.1 N   122.1 E
    SatEvo     No prediction at present
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 2399 deb C                                284 x 197 km
    1 28084U 03035C   03323.79731577  .02240654  71795-5  13911-2 0    74
    2 28084  64.9176 207.6011 0066363  73.9354 286.9446 16.12334608   181
    
    Note: So far, only one elset has appeared for this.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23085 = 03- 35 D = Cosmos 2399 deb
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Nov 19 23:41     Nov 22 23:15 +-2d         4.5 N    35.7 W
    SatEvo     No prediction at present
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 2399 deb D                                282 x 194 km
    1 28085U 03035D   03323.92124602  .02253899  71940-5  12925-2 0    76
    2 28085  64.9180 207.1464 0066282  75.0464 285.8484 16.13328466   208
    
    Note: So far, only one elset has appeared for this.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
    
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