RE: Phobos-Grunt: latest two TLEs suggest manoeuvring or venting

From: Ted Molczan (
Date: Sun Nov 13 2011 - 15:17:59 UTC

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    USSTRATCOM's epoch 11317.51854193 TLE confirms the recent resumption of decay at the normal rate. 
    Applying Alan Pickup's Satana/Satevo decay prediction programs to the three TLEs ending with the aforementioned one, and
    assuming the current 10.7 cm solar flux ~165, yields estimated decay on 2012 Jan 12. Uncertainty is 12 days, based on
    the rule of thumb of 20% of time remaining to predicted decay.
    Ted Molczan
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