RE: Fobos-Grunt: no manoeuvring evident in TLEs after 2011 Nov 20 UTC

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Sat Nov 26 2011 - 01:22:26 UTC

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    Ballistic flight continued through the epoch 11329.87703674 USSTRATCOM TLE. Manoeuvring ended sometime between the TLEs
    of epoch 11324.94169617 and 11325.19110916. Updated orbit evolution for the period 11326.25097676 - 11329.87703674:
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/phsrm/Fobos-Grunt_orbit_evolution_v6.pdf
     
    Assuming solar activity remains near the low end of normal, STOAG propagates the orbit to decay on 2012 Jan 12.
    Uncertainty +/- 10 days, based on the rule of thumb of 20% of time remaining until predicted decay.
     
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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