Re: OTV 5 search elements

From: Leo Barhorst via Seesat-l <seesat-l_at_satobs.org>
Date: Sun, 5 Nov 2017 22:10:30 +0100
This evening I hoped to look for the OTV 5 suspect, but it was clouded out.
A big cloud blocked the part of the sky where was predicted at the
"right"time.

Leo

2017-11-05 22:03 GMT+01:00 Ted Molczan via Seesat-l <seesat-l_at_satobs.org>:

> The search orbit I posted for the 63.6 deg inclined OTV 5 suspect is too
> far
> in plane from the estimated 43 deg parking orbit of OTV 5, to have been
> manoeuvred there by the Falcon 9 second stage. The burn angle would have
> been nearly 45 deg, requiring an orbital manoeuvre with delta-V in excess
> of
> 5800 m/s.
>
> Falcon 9 v1.2 is said to be able to send 5500 kg to GTO, with first stage
> recovery. Delta-V to GTO is ~2400 m/s.
>
> The mass of X-37B is believed to be about 5000 kg, and OTV 5's Falcon 9
> first stage was recovered. Performance to a 43 deg parking orbit would be
> less than to 28.5 deg, so I doubt that the available delta-V in parking
> orbit would be much more than the 2400 m/s of a GTO launch. Therefore, I do
> not believe that a 5800 m/s plane change was feasible. I recall that OTV is
> believed to have considerable delta-V of its own, but I doubt it would be
> sufficient to make up the ~3400 m/s shortfall of Falcon 9.
>
> Russell Eberst and David Hopkins report that the OTV 5 suspect was a
> no-show
> in the search TLE that I posted, which casts serious doubt on the
> reliability of that orbit.
>
> Russell has suggested that his Nov 02 UTC sighting may have been of an old
> NOSS object. NOSS 1-7 (E) (86014E / 16624) appears to correlate. I offer
> the
> following search TLE:
>
> 1 77777U 77777A   17306.79899306  .00000911  00000-0  10280-3 0    06
> 2 77777  63.3235 189.6500 0900000  59.0987  43.7000 13.45667686    01
>
> Ted Molczan
>
>
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Received on Sun Nov 05 2017 - 15:11:00 UTC

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