Re: Decay watch: Molniya r and platform

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 10 Oct 1998 19:30:58 +0100

The Molniya rocket was 4 seconds late against yesterday's prediction at
the epoch of the latest elset (already 7 hours old):

Moln 1T? Moln r1                                 282 x 187 km
1 25486U 98054B   98283.47388963  .01776893  83120-5  85662-3 0   563
2 25486  62.8094 267.8736 0072131 134.7608 225.9788 16.14464386  1845

My forecast for decay continues to slip and now stands at October 13.6
+-0.6 day. The current evolution:
Moln 1T? Moln r1                                 271 x 185 km
1 25486U 98054B   98284.03086040  .02416918  23453-2  10170-2 0 90567
2 25486  62.8086 265.6353 0065436 134.8687 225.6645 16.17006610  1939
Moln 1T? Moln r1                                 260 x 182 km
1 25486U 98054B   98284.52519130  .02843573  36463-2  10348-2 0 90565
2 25486  62.8077 263.6415 0058860 134.9649 225.5138 16.19591850  2011
Moln 1T? Moln r1                                 246 x 178 km
1 25486U 98054B   98285.01865951  .03484718  54903-2  10481-2 0 90565
2 25486  62.8067 261.6429 0051464 135.0615 225.3561 16.22691615  2091

             ----------------------------------

The final official elset for the platform is:

Molniya 1T? platform                             148 x 118 km
1 25487U 98054C   98283.26492088  .31622359  89210-5  19704-3 0   666
2 25487  62.8077 268.4593 0022970 118.3630 243.8985 16.52471399  1813

Compared with the prediction I posted yesterday, it had been running 9
seconds late at an elset for 98283.082. Decay probably followed perigee
on the above orbit, at about October 10.28 (06:50 UTC). The track during
this period took it from Quebec towards the easternmost point of Brazil.

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
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