Re: Decay watch: #25486 = Molniya rocket

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 12 Oct 1998 23:33:26 +0100

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OIG is still down but thanks to observations by Ed Light, almost a day
ago, and Pierre Neirinck this (October 12) evening, it is possible to
provide an updated prediction for this imminent decayer.

Pierre made three positional fixes around 18:26 UTC and reports it
varying irregularly between mag 1.5 and 4. It appears to have been
running 41 seconds late against the prediction I posted yesterday.
Pierre also provides the following orbit (converted to TLE form by me,
though the mean motion looks a little high):

Moln 1T? Moln r1                                 225 x 166 km
1 25486U 98054B   98285.75799800  .04000000  83980-2  70583-3 0 90561
2 25486  62.8058 258.6537 0044920 135.2066 225.1569 16.28927489  2215

My new analysis confirms that decay has slipped still further, perhaps
into October 14. Indeed I now show October 14.0 +-0.25 day.

Prediction:
Moln 1T? Moln r1                                 222 x 169 km
1 25486U 98054B   98286.00372844  .04888043  12685-1  92781-3 0 90563
2 25486  62.8051 257.6490 0040258 135.2553 225.0701 16.28833894  2253
Moln 1T? Moln r1                                 208 x 164 km
1 25486U 98054B   98286.31036745  .06578739  26084-1  94233-3 0 90566
2 25486  62.8040 256.3902 0033543 135.3164 224.9544 16.32290879  2307
Moln 1T? Moln r1                                 194 x 159 km
1 25486U 98054B   98286.55513486  .09425082  57719-1  94950-3 0 90564
2 25486  62.8028 255.3801 0027011 135.3655 224.8523 16.36114496  2342
Moln 1T? Moln r1                                 172 x 148 km
1 25486U 98054B   98286.79918230  .17732077  22528+0  63140-3 0 90565
2 25486  62.8007 254.3661 0018309 135.4150 224.7324 16.42316331  2384
Moln 1T? Moln r1                                 163 x 143 km
1 25486U 98054B   98286.86002240  .23132770  41731+0  54990-3 0 90569
2 25486  62.7999 254.1117 0015391 135.4274 224.6964 16.44769152  2397
Moln 1T? Moln r1                                 152 x 137 km
1 25486U 98054B   98286.92075549  .34872827  10856+1  48686-3 0 90564
2 25486  62.7989 253.8566 0011776 135.4399 224.6548 16.48179526  2405
Moln 1T? Moln r1                                 132 x 123 km
1 25486U 98054B   98286.98131977  .90838954  10353+2  51112-3 0 90564
2 25486  62.7971 253.6006 0006365 135.4524 224.5988 16.54563309  2412

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
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