Decay watch: 2000 Oct 2

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Oct 02 2000 - 11:34:34 PDT

  • Next message: Tony Beresford: "Oct 02 Observations"

    Once again, a summary of the latest update to my decay Watch page - the
    latest elsets are collected at the end.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #21829 = 91- 87 F = Raduga 28 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct  2 11:30     Oct  8 09:59 +-4d        17.3 S   103.1 E
    SatEvo     Oct  2 16:25     Oct  9 14:00 +-2d
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25129 = 97- 86 D = Asiasat 3 Proton r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct  1 06:15     Oct  5 00:26 +-2d        49.3 S    31.6 E
    SatEvo     Oct  2 16:30     Oct  6 09:40 +-1.5d
    
    The latest elset shows this running 2.3 min late against yesterday's
    prediction.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26553 = 00- 58 B = Cosmos 2373 Soyuz-U rocket
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct  2 10:58     Oct  2 10:19 +-53m       35.1 N   174.5 W
    SatEvo     Oct  2 17:15     Oct  2 10:24 +-20m        0.0     162.3 W
    
    Final elset:
    Cosmos 2373 Soyuz r                              148 x 131 km
    1 26553U 00058B   00276.34244130  .28262379  42880-5  29127-3 0   238
    2 26553  70.3466 185.3512 0013101  78.1641 281.9137 16.50072200   483
    
    The elset shows this running 4 sec early against yesterday's prediction.
    I place the decay near a southbound equator crossing over the Pacific.
    My predicted elset for the start of the final rev:
    Cosmos 2373 Soyuz r                              130 x 119 km
    1 26553U 00058B   00276.40297437  .65793674  52333+1  32149-3 0 90237
    2 26553  70.3447 185.1625 0008561  78.0423 282.0537 16.55745434   494
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26555 = 00- 59 B = GE-1A Proton rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct  2 06:32     Oct  3 13:08 +-19h       39.4 S    91.8 E
    SatEvo     Oct  2 16:40     Oct  3 22:15 +-8h        39.2 N    32.1 E
    
    This enters eclipse while northbound near 41 deg S in the evening sky
    and leaves eclipse near 51 deg N before dawn. I show it decaying soon
    after the epoch of the final elset below, perhaps northbound over Turkey
    (but still with much uncertainty).
    GE-1A Proton r                                   105 x 98 km
    1 26555U 00059B   00277.91816816 1.30351859  24826+2  21289-3 0 90053
    2 26555  51.6003 338.9357 0005697 281.1333  78.8025 16.64401612   333
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26556 = 00- 59 C = GE-1A Proton platform
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Oct  2 09:11     Oct  2 10:57 +-1h        31.2 S   144.7 E
    SatEvo     Oct  2 16:15     Oct  2 10:45 +-30m       48.3 S   112.9 E
    
    Final elsets:
    GE-1A Proton platform                            158 x 123 km
    1 26556U 00059C   00276.39804965  .63817014  00000-0  53123-3 0    63
    2 26556  51.5937 347.5799 0027324 247.8205 112.0654 16.49560964    72
    GE-1A Proton platform                            152 x 135 km
    1 26556U 00059C   00276.39806368  .49287922  12621-4  63682-3 0    62
    2 26556  51.5970 347.6005 0013133 266.2656  93.6965 16.48408583    85
    GE-1A Proton platform                            244 x 64 km
    1 26556U 00059C   00276.45858387  .99999999  13201-4  18504-3 0    75
    2 26556  51.5678 347.3837 0138114 291.2842  61.4084 16.44438676    90
    
    These final elsets leave something to be desired - the final one in
    particular has a much-too-high apogee and (probably) a too-low mean
    motion. My analysis ignores the final elset entirely and suggests that
    this decayed to the S of Australia on a northbound track that would have
    carried it near Adelaide at 10:49 UTC, with SpaceCom's decay point a
    little further on over New South Wales. I note that the epoch of the
    final elset is at 11:00 UTC.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    Latest elsets for those objects still in orbit...
    Raduga 28 aux motor                              1170 x 128 km
    1 21829U 91087F   00276.49263798  .06006771  78566-5  41625-3 0  9209
    2 21829  46.4035 103.6246 0741231 138.2083 227.7877 14.73833382153945
    Asiasat 3 r                                      5936 x 90 km
    1 25129U 97086D   00276.21477120  .35802938  42526-5  12254-2 0   458
    2 25129  50.8168 131.3038 3112126 251.3757  72.7702  9.54032661 26373
    GE-1A Proton r                                   207 x 148 km
    1 26555U 00059B   00276.45955593  .04249960  12257-4  24588-3 0    50
    2 26555  51.6076 347.2369 0044728 274.9270  84.7021 16.35573182    92
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Mon Oct 02 2000 - 11:36:28 PDT