Once again, a summary of the latest update to my decay Watch page - the
latest elsets are collected at the end.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #21829 = 91- 87 F = Raduga 28 aux motor
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Oct 2 11:30 Oct 8 09:59 +-4d 17.3 S 103.1 E
SatEvo Oct 2 16:25 Oct 9 14:00 +-2d
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #25129 = 97- 86 D = Asiasat 3 Proton r2
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Oct 1 06:15 Oct 5 00:26 +-2d 49.3 S 31.6 E
SatEvo Oct 2 16:30 Oct 6 09:40 +-1.5d
The latest elset shows this running 2.3 min late against yesterday's
prediction.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26553 = 00- 58 B = Cosmos 2373 Soyuz-U rocket
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Oct 2 10:58 Oct 2 10:19 +-53m 35.1 N 174.5 W
SatEvo Oct 2 17:15 Oct 2 10:24 +-20m 0.0 162.3 W
Final elset:
Cosmos 2373 Soyuz r 148 x 131 km
1 26553U 00058B 00276.34244130 .28262379 42880-5 29127-3 0 238
2 26553 70.3466 185.3512 0013101 78.1641 281.9137 16.50072200 483
The elset shows this running 4 sec early against yesterday's prediction.
I place the decay near a southbound equator crossing over the Pacific.
My predicted elset for the start of the final rev:
Cosmos 2373 Soyuz r 130 x 119 km
1 26553U 00058B 00276.40297437 .65793674 52333+1 32149-3 0 90237
2 26553 70.3447 185.1625 0008561 78.0423 282.0537 16.55745434 494
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26555 = 00- 59 B = GE-1A Proton rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Oct 2 06:32 Oct 3 13:08 +-19h 39.4 S 91.8 E
SatEvo Oct 2 16:40 Oct 3 22:15 +-8h 39.2 N 32.1 E
This enters eclipse while northbound near 41 deg S in the evening sky
and leaves eclipse near 51 deg N before dawn. I show it decaying soon
after the epoch of the final elset below, perhaps northbound over Turkey
(but still with much uncertainty).
GE-1A Proton r 105 x 98 km
1 26555U 00059B 00277.91816816 1.30351859 24826+2 21289-3 0 90053
2 26555 51.6003 338.9357 0005697 281.1333 78.8025 16.64401612 333
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26556 = 00- 59 C = GE-1A Proton platform
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Oct 2 09:11 Oct 2 10:57 +-1h 31.2 S 144.7 E
SatEvo Oct 2 16:15 Oct 2 10:45 +-30m 48.3 S 112.9 E
Final elsets:
GE-1A Proton platform 158 x 123 km
1 26556U 00059C 00276.39804965 .63817014 00000-0 53123-3 0 63
2 26556 51.5937 347.5799 0027324 247.8205 112.0654 16.49560964 72
GE-1A Proton platform 152 x 135 km
1 26556U 00059C 00276.39806368 .49287922 12621-4 63682-3 0 62
2 26556 51.5970 347.6005 0013133 266.2656 93.6965 16.48408583 85
GE-1A Proton platform 244 x 64 km
1 26556U 00059C 00276.45858387 .99999999 13201-4 18504-3 0 75
2 26556 51.5678 347.3837 0138114 291.2842 61.4084 16.44438676 90
These final elsets leave something to be desired - the final one in
particular has a much-too-high apogee and (probably) a too-low mean
motion. My analysis ignores the final elset entirely and suggests that
this decayed to the S of Australia on a northbound track that would have
carried it near Adelaide at 10:49 UTC, with SpaceCom's decay point a
little further on over New South Wales. I note that the epoch of the
final elset is at 11:00 UTC.
_____________________________________________________________________
Latest elsets for those objects still in orbit...
Raduga 28 aux motor 1170 x 128 km
1 21829U 91087F 00276.49263798 .06006771 78566-5 41625-3 0 9209
2 21829 46.4035 103.6246 0741231 138.2083 227.7877 14.73833382153945
Asiasat 3 r 5936 x 90 km
1 25129U 97086D 00276.21477120 .35802938 42526-5 12254-2 0 458
2 25129 50.8168 131.3038 3112126 251.3757 72.7702 9.54032661 26373
GE-1A Proton r 207 x 148 km
1 26555U 00059B 00276.45955593 .04249960 12257-4 24588-3 0 50
2 26555 51.6076 347.2369 0044728 274.9270 84.7021 16.35573182 92
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Mon Oct 02 2000 - 11:36:28 PDT