SatEvo decay list #107 (issued 2000 October 28) This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe. Information about SeeSat-L is available at http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 2000 December 25, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date. This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle and all newly launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,300 satellites. This is available in zipped form from the same address. I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ This includes my predicted elsets for these objects. # Designation Name ----- Decay (2000) ----- Predicted Actual? 18984 88- 6 F DMSP F9 deb October 5.6 25129 97- 86 D Asiasat 3 r2 October 7.14 25547 98- 68 B Bonum Delta 2 r October 7.21 26138 99- 57 AA CBERS LM4 deb October 7.2 21829 91- 87 F Raduga 28 aux motor October 8.40 26542 00- 56 E Cosmos 2372 Zenit deb October 8.9 23954 96- 41 B GPS 2-26 Delta 2 r1 October 8.97 25234 98- 12 B Teledesic 1 October 9.17 26541 00- 56 D Cosmos 2372 Zenit deb October 10.1 23971 94- 29 R STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 10.3 26543 00- 56 F Cosmos 2372 Zenit deb October 11.2 26539 00- 56 B Cosmos 2372 Zenit r October 11.75 Note 3 7967 72- 58 CT Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb October 11.9 26567 00- 63 D Cosmos 2374 Proton casing October 14.02 Note 4 26408 00- 40 B GPS 2R-5 Delta 2 r1 October 14.32 26540 00- 56 C Cosmos 2372 Zenit deb October 14.4 26568 00- 63 E Cosmos 2374 Proton r October 14? 26425 99- 57 JW CBERS LM4 deb October 16.6 Note 1 23632 95- 39 A Interbol 1 October 16.58 Note 2 26571 00- 64 B Progress M-43 Soyuz r October 18.33 24249 94- 29 LY STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 19.1 23107 93- 61 J Spot 3 Ariane deb October 19.8 23817 96- 15 B Intelsat 707 Ariane r October 19.6 4930 70- 25 FW Nimbus 4 ThAg deb October 20.1 25390 98- 42 B Tubsat N1 October 21.43 25305 94- 29 ADK STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 21 4325 69- 82 DY Thorad Agena D deb October 21.7 26582 00- 67 C GE-6 Proton casing October 22.50 24566 94- 29 XS STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 22.5 Note 1 26144 99- 57 AG CBERS LM4 deb October 22.8 26581 00- 67 B GE-6 Proton r October 23.49 24100 94- 29 EX STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 24 23549 95- 18 A Ofeq 3 October 24.71 26584 95- 8 N Cosmos 2306 deb October 25.7 25031 97- 67 B GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r1 October 25.84 26133 99- 57 V CBERS LM4 deb October 26.2 Note 1 26589 95- 8 T Cosmos 2306 deb October 27.3 Note 1 26588 95- 8 S Cosmos 2306 deb October 27.5 Note 1 26586 95- 8 Q Cosmos 2306 deb October 27.6 Note 1 26587 95- 8 R Cosmos 2306 deb October 27.7 Note 1 13759 81- 53 GR Cosmos 1275 deb October 28.0 1937 65-112 Q Cosmos 103 SL-8 deb October 28.2 17208 86- 19 BL Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb October 28 26585 95- 8 P Cosmos 2306 deb October 28 22384 92- 93 BZ Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb October 30 23501 95- 8 A Cosmos 2306 October 30 26438 99- 57 KK CBERS LM4 deb November 1 26572 98- 67 E ISS deb November 2 15781 80- 30 AX Cosmos 1174 deb November 4 24258 94- 29 MH STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 4 26167 99- 57 BD CBERS LM4 deb November 5 5077 70- 89 AQ Cosmos 374 deb November 7 16311 79- 17 CA Solwind deb November 7 25069 97- 75 C JCSat-5 Ariane 44P r November 7 26431 99- 57 KC CBERS LM4 deb November 7 26206 99- 57 CU CBERS LM4 deb November 10 8979 75- 4 BM Landsat 4 Delta 1 deb November 12 20255 89- 78 A Molniya 1-76 November 12 24116 94- 29 FP STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 13 25032 97- 67 C GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r2 November 13 26340 99- 57 HZ CBERS LM4 deb November 13 26274 99- 57 FL CBERS LM4 deb November 14 2167 66- 34 B OV 3-1 r November 15 26170 99- 57 BG CBERS LM4 deb November 15 20896 90- 81 BG FY-1B CZ deb November 16 18963 63- 14 DP Westford Needles deb November 17? 3492 65- 82 QN OV2-1/LCS2 deb November 19 21802 91- 62 H Solar A r deb November 19 17726 71- 15 DD Cosmos 397 deb November 21 10212 77- 65 AR GMS 1 Delta deb November 24 24117 94- 29 FQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 27 22067 92- 47 H C 2204 Proton r2 December 1 26455 99- 57 LA CBERS LM4 deb December 1 24164 94- 29 HP STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 3 22380 92- 93 BV C 2227 Zenit deb December 4 4625 70- 91 E Cosmos 375 deb December 5 19830 78-100 AN C 1045 SL-14 deb December 6 24743 97- 9 B Intelsat 801 Ariane r December 6 25470 98- 51 D Iridium 79 December 6 8577 70- 89 AQ Cosmos 374 deb December 7 15538 71- 15 CV Cosmos 397 deb December 7 4618 70- 89 E Cosmos 374 deb December 8 26171 99- 57 BH CBERS LM4 deb December 8 26164 99- 57 BA CBERS LM4 deb December 9 21334 75- 52 BC Nimbus 6 Delta 1 deb December 10 22373 92- 93 BN C 2227 Zenit deb December 10 26190 99- 57 CC CBERS LM4 deb December 11 24089 94- 29 EL STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 12 4392 70- 34 B Mao 1 CZ-1 r December 13 25124 97- 85 B Early Bird r December 13 25422 98- 46 K Orbcomm 13 Peg r2 December 14 24140 94- 29 GP STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 16 16243 85-105 D Cosmos 1701 r2 December 17? 18719 87-109 E Ekran 17 aux motor December 17 23824 96- 10 E Raduga 33 aux motor December 19? 16480 79- 17 FE Solwind deb December 20 17628 81- 53 LA Cosmos 1275 deb December 20 22925 93- 72 E Gorizont 29 aux mot December 20 26051 93- 9 D OXP 1 Pegasus deb December 22 23854 96- 25 B Cosmos 2332 r 2001 January 1 4584 70- 85 B Meteor 1-6 r 2001 January 3 24745 97- 10 B Zeya r 2001 January 4 14520 83-114 D Molniya 1-59 r2 2001 January 16110 85- 90 A Cosmos 1689 2001 January 25529 98- 66 C Iridium 85 2001 January 16112 85- 91 A Molniya 3-26 2001 February 16939 86- 68 D Molniya 1-68 r2 2001 February Notes 1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay. 2. #23632 = Interbol 1. Again, thanks to Vladimir Agapov for alerting me to the decay of this highly eccentric object. The perigee was driven down strongly by luni-solar effects and Interbol 1 plunged into the atmosphere on October 16. My calculations show it falling steeply to an altitude of 80 km near 11.6 deg S, 0.2 deg W, at 14:01:26 UTC on that date. Vladimir reports that calculations at the KAIM Ballistic Center give the decay at 14:03:33 UTC at 10.9835 deg S, 0.18 deg E. 3. The re-entry of #26539 (Cosmos 2372 Zenit rocket) was observed from an aircraft in the vicinity of Maseru, Lesotho, as a long-duration fragmenting fireball at very low elevation between the NNE and ESE. 4. The re-entry of #26567 (Cosmos 2374 Proton casing or "platform") was observed as it passed over Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas - the decay time given is that of the observation. It appears that pieces of debris from the object have been discovered in a field in Kansas. SpaceCom's claim that the fireball came from the Orionids meteor shower is nonsense - at the time of the re-entry the Orionids radiant was some 40 deg _below_ the local NNE horizon. Alan -- Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ ----------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe' in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Oct 28 2000 - 13:49:10 PDT