Shenzhou 5 - preliminary search elements and visibility

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@rogers.com)
Date: Wed Oct 08 2003 - 20:26:55 EDT

  • Next message: Mir16609@aol.com: "Re: Shenzhou 5 - preliminary search elements and visibility"

    It has been brought to my attention that British press is reporting that the
    Chinese travel agency that is booking viewers to the launch is telling customers
    that lift-off will be Oct 15 at 8:00 AM Beijing Time.
    
    The real launch time may well be different, so the following information is
    preliminary.
    
    
    1. Search Elements
    
    China has only one time zone, which is 8 h ahead of UTC, so launch at 8 AM
    equals 0 h UTC - about 33 min after sunrise on Oct 15. All four unpiloted test
    flights were launched at night, but it makes intuitive sense to launch a crew in
    daylight whenever possible.
    
    Assuming the same launch profile and orbit circularization burn as Shenzhou 4,
    the following elements should be accurate to within a minute or two, based upon
    launch on 2003 Oct 15 at 0 h UTC:
    
    
    1.1 Elliptical Parking Orbit until MET 06 h 50 m
    
    The spacecraft will be inserted into approximately a 207 km x 340 km parking
    orbit, where it will remain until nearly 7 h after launch. The following orbit
    is based upon the launch vehicle's final stage, which should be a close
    approximation of the spacecraft's orbit:
    
    Shenzhou 5       7.8  2.5  0.0  5.4 d
    1 70000U          03288.63420693  .00788058  82648-5  58603-3 0    31
    2 70000  42.4069  11.1671 0099929 134.5463  16.8336 16.04205144   100
    
    My guess is that the spacecraft will trail a short distance behind the rocket
    during this period.
    
    
    1.2 Circularized Orbit after MET 06 h 50 m
    
    The spacecraft will circularize its orbit as it passes through apogee for the
    5th time, about 7 h after launch, whereupon it will be in this orbit:
    
    Shenzhou 5       7.8  2.5  0.0  5.4 d
    1 70001U          03288.63534262  .00036000  00000-0  19749-3 0    16
    2 70001  42.4080  11.2380 0004797 163.8920 321.6647 15.78791273   109
    
    
    2. Visibility Latitudes
    
    The visibility latitudes are strongly dependent upon launch time, assumed to be
    0 h UTC in this case.
    
    
    2.1 Northern Hemisphere
    
    The spacecraft and its rocket body will be visible in morning twilight between
    approximately latitude 35 deg N and 45 deg N, with the best passes near the
    middle of the range.
    
    On launch day, observers in Europe and longitudes to the east will see the
    spacecraft while still in its elliptical parking orbit. The perigee will be in
    the northern hemisphere, so passes will be little more than 200 km altitude.
    
    By the time North America's east coast rotates under the orbit, the spacecraft
    will have circularized its orbit.
    
    
    2.2 Southern Hemisphere
    
    The spacecraft and its rocket body will be visible in evening twilight between
    approximately latitude 32 deg S and 45 deg S, with the best passes near the
    middle of the range.
    
    
    I plan to update this information soon after the launch time has been announced.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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