ROSAT: evolution of predicted decay v3

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Tue Oct 18 2011 - 15:08:53 UTC

  • Next message: Harro Zimmer: "Decay Forecast"

    I have updated my plot of decay predictions of ROSAT (1990-049A / 20638) made by myself and Harro Zimmer, and have added
    USSTRATCOM's first TIP prediction:
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/ROSAT_decay_predictions_v3.pdf
    
    The file contains three plots covering progressively greater time spans.
    
    Since Oct 13, the consensus date of decay has been Oct 23 UTC. 
    
    My latest Satevo prediction, based on the epoch 11291.171528 TLE, is Oct 23 near 06 h UTC. Uncertainty is at least half
    a day.
    
    Harro's latest prediction, issued yesterday, is 23 October, 11:04 UTC +/- 10 hours:
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat/Oct-2011/0145.html
    
    USSTRATCOM's TIP messages are available via Space Track:
    
    http://www.space-track.org
    
    The latest one, issued today at 11:10 UTC, predicts decay on Oct 23 at 11:28 UTC, +/- 72 hours.
    
    I intend to provide updates from time to time, including predictions from additional sources. Suggestions of sources are
    welcome.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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