ROSAT: evolution of predicted decay v4

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Wed Oct 19 2011 - 02:35:44 UTC

  • Next message: Scott Tilley: "ST Obs Oct 19th"

    I have updated my plot of decay predictions of ROSAT (1990-049A / 20638), made by myself, USSTRATCOM and Harro Zimmer,
    and have added The Aerospace Corporation's first published prediction:
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/ROSAT_decay_predictions_v4.pdf
    
    I have added a plot that displays the range of uncertainty. In the case of the Satevo predictions, it is 20% of the time
    to predicted decay, which is merely a rough rule of thumb; for the other sources, it is as they reported.
    
    Since Oct 13, the consensus date of decay has been Oct 23 UTC. 
    
    My latest Satevo prediction, based on the epoch 11291.9109880 TLE, is Oct 23 near 17 h UTC. Uncertainty is about one
    day, based on the aforementioned rule of thumb.
    
    The Aerospace Corporation's latest prediction, based on the epoch 11291.1715280 TLE, is Oct 23 06:40 UTC +/- 30 h:
    
    http://reentrynews.aero.org/1990049a.html
    
    It is difficult to see on the plots, because it happened to fall close to the Satevo prediction based upon the same TLE.
    
    USSTRATCOM's latest TIP prediction, issued Oct 18 at 11:10 UTC, predicts decay on Oct 23 at 11:28 UTC, +/- 72 h:
    
    http://www.space-track.org
    
    Harro's latest prediction, issued Oct 18 at 16:00 UTC, is 23 October, 11:00 UTC +/- 8 h:
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat/Oct-2011/0156.html
    
    I intend to provide updates from time to time, including predictions from additional sources. Suggestions of sources are
    welcome.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
     
    
    _______________________________________________
    Seesat-l mailing list
    http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l
    



    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed Oct 19 2011 - 02:40:48 UTC