ROSAT: evolution of predicted decay v5

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Wed Oct 19 2011 - 15:11:12 UTC

  • Next message: Harro Zimmer: "Decay Forecast ROSAT - Update"

    I have updated my plot of decay predictions of ROSAT (1990-049A / 20638), made by myself, The Aerospace Corporation,
    USSTRATCOM, and Harro Zimmer:
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/ROSAT_decay_predictions_v5.pdf
    
    I have adjusted the scales of the first two plots to provide greater resolution.
    
    Since Oct 13, the consensus date of decay has been Oct 23 UTC. 
    
    My latest Satevo prediction, based on the epoch 11292.3419360 TLE, is Oct 23 near 10 h UTC. Uncertainty is about 16 h,
    based on the 20 percent of time remaining to decay rule of thumb.
    
    The Aerospace Corporation's latest prediction, based on the epoch 11291.1715280 TLE, is Oct 23 06:40 UTC +/- 30 h:
    
    http://reentrynews.aero.org/1990049a.html
    
    USSTRATCOM's latest TIP prediction, issued Oct 18 at 11:10 UTC, predicts decay on Oct 23 at 11:28 UTC, +/- 72 h:
    
    http://www.space-track.org
    
    Harro's latest prediction, issued Oct 19 at 11:00 UTC, is 23 October, 09:48 UTC +/- 8 h:
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat/Oct-2011/0162.html
    
    I intend to provide updates from time to time, including predictions from additional sources. Suggestions of sources are
    welcome.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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