ROSAT: evolution of predicted decay v6

From: Ted Molczan (
Date: Wed Oct 19 2011 - 17:18:20 UTC

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    I have updated my plot of decay predictions of ROSAT (1990-049A / 20638), made by myself, The Aerospace Corporation,
    USSTRATCOM, and Harro Zimmer.
    First, I corrected an error in the v5 report, in which the Satevo uncertainty bars were out of synch with the
    Next I produced v6, which includes the updated predictions described below:
    Since Oct 13, the consensus date of decay has been Oct 23 UTC. 
    1. Updated since v5:
    The Aerospace Corporation's latest prediction, based on the epoch 11292.3419360 TLE, is Oct 23 10:33 UTC +/- 24 h:
    Harro's latest prediction, issued Oct 19 at 16:00 UTC, is 23 October, 08:30 UTC +/- 7 h:
    2. Unchanged since v5:
    USSTRATCOM's latest TIP prediction, issued Oct 18 at 11:10 UTC, predicts decay on Oct 23 at 11:28 UTC, +/- 72 h:
    My latest Satevo prediction, based on the epoch 11292.3419360 TLE, is Oct 23 near 10 h UTC. Uncertainty is about 16 h,
    based on the 20 percent of time remaining to decay rule of thumb.
    I intend to provide updates from time to time, including predictions from additional sources. Suggestions of sources are
    Ted Molczan
    Seesat-l mailing list

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