ROSAT decay predictions -ground tracks

From: satrack@libero.it
Date: Wed Oct 19 2011 - 22:31:34 UTC

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    I've collected all these predictions (along with mine) on the page of my online 
    program.
    
    For each prediction It is now possible to see on the map where the satellite 
    may reenter
    accordingly with the related time uncertainty.
    
    I will try to keep this page up-to-date as much as possible.
    
    the page link is:
    
    http://digilander.libero.it/SATrack/VisualSATFlareTrackerOnline.html?q=20638
    
    Regards,
    Simone
    
    
    >----Messaggio originale----
    >Da: ssl3molcz@rogers.com
    >Data: 19-ott-2011 19.18
    >A: <seesat-l@satobs.org>
    >Ogg: ROSAT: evolution of predicted decay v6
    >
    >I have updated my plot of decay predictions of ROSAT (1990-049A / 20638), 
    made by myself, The Aerospace Corporation,
    >USSTRATCOM, and Harro Zimmer.
    >
    >First, I corrected an error in the v5 report, in which the Satevo uncertainty 
    bars were out of synch with the
    >predictions:
    >
    >http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/ROSAT_decay_predictions_v5.pdf
    >
    >Next I produced v6, which includes the updated predictions described below:
    >
    >http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/ROSAT_decay_predictions_v6.pdf
    >
    >Since Oct 13, the consensus date of decay has been Oct 23 UTC. 
    >
    >1. Updated since v5:
    >
    >The Aerospace Corporation's latest prediction, based on the epoch 
    11292.3419360 TLE, is Oct 23 10:33 UTC +/- 24 h:
    >
    >http://reentrynews.aero.org/1990049a.html
    >
    >Harro's latest prediction, issued Oct 19 at 16:00 UTC, is 23 October, 08:30 
    UTC +/- 7 h:
    >
    >http://satobs.org/seesat/Oct-2011/0165.html
    >
    >2. Unchanged since v5:
    >
    >USSTRATCOM's latest TIP prediction, issued Oct 18 at 11:10 UTC, predicts 
    decay on Oct 23 at 11:28 UTC, +/- 72 h:
    >
    >http://www.space-track.org
    >
    >My latest Satevo prediction, based on the epoch 11292.3419360 TLE, is Oct 23 
    near 10 h UTC. Uncertainty is about 16 h,
    >based on the 20 percent of time remaining to decay rule of thumb.
    >
    >I intend to provide updates from time to time, including predictions from 
    additional sources. Suggestions of sources are
    >welcome.
    >
    >Ted Molczan
    >
    > 
    >
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