ROSAT: evolution of predicted decay v7

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Fri Oct 21 2011 - 00:10:08 UTC

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    I have updated my plot of decay predictions of ROSAT (1990-049A / 20638), made by myself, The Aerospace Corporation,
    USSTRATCOM, and Harro Zimmer.
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/ROSAT_decay_predictions_v7.pdf
    
    The consensus date of decay remains Oct 23 UTC.
    
    1. Updated since v6:
    
    My latest Satevo prediction, based on the epoch 11293.8168200TLE, is Oct 23 near 11:30 h UTC. Uncertainty is about 12 h,
    based on the 20 percent of time remaining to decay rule of thumb.
    
    USSTRATCOM's latest TIP prediction, issued Oct 20 at 08:06 UTC, predicts decay on Oct 23 at 05:03 UTC, +/- 48 h:
    
    http://www.space-track.org
    
    Harro's latest prediction, issued Oct 20 at 17:00 UTC, is 23 October, 07:21 UTC +/- 6 h:
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat/Oct-2011/0183.html
    
    2. Unchanged since v5:
    
    The Aerospace Corporation's latest prediction, based on the epoch 11292.3419360 TLE, is Oct 23 10:33 UTC +/- 24 h:
    
    http://reentrynews.aero.org/1990049a.html
    
    I intend to provide updates from time to time, including predictions from additional sources. Suggestions of sources are
    welcome.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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