I think our only hope is to match a recent observation and tune the drag setting in a TLE file and SatEvo it. There is a very good (actually fantastic) photograph that could not have been done any better - perfect, but I am struggling to contact the photographer. Photo details: http://spaceweather.com/submissions/large_image_popup.php?image_name=David-Harvey-_MG_5615ps3_web_1319250108.jpg Photographer: David Harvey This would be enough to get the time to within a few hours I believe. Paul S. On Sat, Oct 22, 2011 at 10:17 PM, Ted Molczan <ssl3molcz@rogers.com> wrote: > I have updated my plot of decay predictions of ROSAT (1990-049A / 20638), > made by myself, The Aerospace Corporation, > USSTRATCOM, and Harro Zimmer. > > http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/ROSAT_decay_predictions_v9.pdf > > The consensus date of decay remains Oct 23 UTC. > > Oddly, the latest TLE on Space Track remains that of epoch 11294.0621390, > nearly 35 hours ago, yet a new TIP message has > appeared in the interim. > > 1. Updated since my previous report: > > USSTRATCOM's latest TIP prediction, issued Oct 22 at 03:30 UTC, predicts > decay on Oct 23 at 01:31 UTC, +/- 24 h: > > http://www.space-track.org > > Harro's latest prediction, issued Oct 21 at 14:40 UTC, is 23 October, 05:33 > UTC +/- 6 h: > > http://satobs.org/seesat/Oct-2011/0214.html > > 2. Unchanged since my previous report: > > My latest Satevo prediction, based on the epoch 11294.0621390 TLE, is Oct > 23 near 05:00 h UTC. Uncertainty is about 10 > h, based on the 20 percent of time remaining to decay rule of thumb. > > The Aerospace Corporation's latest prediction, based on the epoch > 11293.8168200 TLE, is Oct 23 at 13:24 UTC +/- 16 h: > > http://reentrynews.aero.org/1990049a.html > > I intend to provide updates from time to time, including predictions from > additional sources. Suggestions of sources are > welcome. > > Ted Molczan > > > _______________________________________________ > Seesat-l mailing list > http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/private/seesat-l/attachments/20111022/5a768e7f/attachment.html _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l
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