ROSAT: evolution of predicted decay v10

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Sat Oct 22 2011 - 16:59:35 UTC

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    I have updated my plot of decay predictions of ROSAT (1990-049A / 20638), made by myself, The Aerospace Corporation,
    USSTRATCOM, and Harro Zimmer. I have also included my experimental results using Satana, as discussed below.
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/ROSAT_decay_predictions_v10.pdf
    
    The consensus date of decay remains Oct 23 UTC.
    
    1. Updated since my previous report:
    
    The Aerospace Corporation's latest prediction, based on the epoch 11294.8581050 TLE, is Oct 23 at 11:12 UTC +/- 10 h:
    
    http://reentrynews.aero.org/1990049a.html
    
    USSTRATCOM's latest TIP prediction, issued Oct 22 at 14:27 UTC, predicts decay on Oct 23 at 02:34 UTC, +/- 7 h:
    
    http://www.space-track.org
    
    Harro's latest prediction, issued Oct 22 at 14:30 UTC, is 23 October, 04:17 UTC +/- 4 h:
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat/Oct-2011/0233.html
    
    My latest Satevo prediction, based on the epoch 11294.8581050 TLE, is Oct 23 near 10:22 h UTC. Uncertainty is about 7 h,
    based on the 20 percent of time remaining to decay rule of thumb.
    
    I am also experimenting with Alan Pickup's Satana program, which attempts to fit more realistic decay terms to the
    existing TLEs. Using that method, I obtain predicted decay on Oct 23 at 01:37 UTC. I have included two new plots, which
    include the Satana results at daily intervals since Oct 13. The results seem interesting, but I am still learning how to
    use this method, so beware!
    
    I intend to provide updates from time to time, including predictions from additional sources. Suggestions of sources are
    welcome.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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