RE: Possible re-entry of Ariane 44L R/B over Brazil caught in a video.

From: Ted Molczan via Seesat-l <seesat-l_at_satobs.org>
Date: Tue, 21 Oct 2014 09:14:24 -0400
A later version of the news report states the time of the sightings:

http://diariodonordeste.verdesmares.com.br/mobile/cadernos/cidade/chuva-de-meteoros-e-vista-no-ceara-e-causa-surpresa-1.1130444

"Por volta das 18h30 de ontem, os cearenses foram surpreendidos por uma chuva de meteoros. O evento cósmico
pôde ser percebido em diversas localidades do Estado, como Fortaleza, Itapipoca, Acopiara, Canindé e
Quiterianópolis, de acordo com o relato dos leitores do Diário do Nordeste por meio do Facebook.

"Estava saindo do prédio com a minha namorada e vimos um forte clarão amarelo, decidimos filmar e conseguimos
registrar o rastro de luz passando rapidamente", afirmou Diego Oliveira, que viu o fenômeno próximo ao bairro
Benfica."

Which Bing translates as:

"Around 6:30 pm yesterday, the locals were surprised by a meteor shower. The cosmic event might be perceived in
many parts of the State, such as Fortress, Itapipoca, Acopiara, Canindé and Quiterianópolis, according to a report
of Daily readers of the Northeast through Facebook.

"I was leaving the building with my girlfriend and we saw a strong yellow glare, we decided to shoot and we can
register the trace of light passing quickly," said Diego Oliveira, who saw the phenomenon next to the Benfica
neighbourhood."

Satana/Satevo propagates USSTRATCOM`s final three 91075B / 21766 TLEs to decay on Oct 20 at 22:50 UTC +/- 4 h. One
of the possible decay passes was at ~21:31 UTC. According to timeanddate.com, the state of Ceará does not observe
daylight saving time, so the local time would have been ~18:31 BRT, consistent with the news report.

The following TLE is suitable for evaluating suspected sightings from the region, within a few minutes of 18:31 BRT.

1 70000U          14293.89652778  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    01
2 70000   7.2138 114.1092 0050535 172.0031  26.2858 16.62000000    06

It was obtained by propagating the final TLE generated by Satana/Satevo to exactly 21:31 UTC (using SGP4), then
altering mean motion to yield a pass at a realistic altitude for a decay. The decay terms were set to zero to avoid
instability in SGP4 propagators. Some implementations may reject the TLE due to the low altitude, in which case,
experiment with slightly lower values of mean motion until it is accepted.

The above TLE reveals that the re-entry would have been visible from all of the sighting locations named in the
above article and in the earlier version. Here is a plot of the estimated track in relation to those locations:

http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/1991-075_re-entry_track.png

The left to right motion in the video is consistent with the west to east passage of the re-entry fireball, on its
track north of the observers.

From the sighting location most distant from the track, Iguatu, the fireball would have culminated about 8 deg above
the northern horizon, which would have been easily visible to anyone with an unobstructed view. The local terrain is
fairly flat.

I would appreciate additional sighting reports.

Ted Molczan











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Received on Tue Oct 21 2014 - 13:14:24 UTC

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