Decays

Bjorn Gimle (bjorn.gimle@online.dextel.se)
18 Sep 1995 13:09:56 GMT

The following list of decay predictions and elsets will be published 
in "Flash", although the elsets may be newer here. I have not had time
to refresh the predictions though. Ted Molczan reports that he may
have been the last to see 05994, because it should have decayed now.

Bj"orn
==========================================================================

Here are my rough estimates of decay dates until 960101.
For circular orbits, they are usually correct within 20 %.
For excentricity>0.1, I have used linear extrapolation to MM=15.0. 
(These are marked ?? - N indicates NASA/USSPACECOM prediction) 
This is usually OK, but the decay will be earlier for excentricities
<0.3 perhaps, and any time if gravitational disturbances or radiation 
pressure affect the orbit. #23453 is periodically maneuvred, but
will decay within three weeks if this is not done.
For excentricities between 0.01 and 0.3, a mix of the two methods,
or the NPOE program, is probably required.

NORAD    Epoch          ndot2      i            e MM        Int.Des.    
Decay

22123,95,254.19784591,+.00538064, 51.6069,   7086,16.235489," 86017GP ",
95265  
05075,95,251.00575054, .00371118, 62.9771,  56231,15.709049," 70089AN ",
95271  
04966,95,251.23882800,+.00365467, 51.3885, 456474,15.265150," 71016A  ",
95272  
22870,95,250.93640275,+.00340668, 56.4615, 869459,14.317481," 93063H  ",
95273  
23634,95,251.06185513,+.00344777, 62.7931, 370432,15.361851," 95039C  ",
95273  
23472,95,251.19596198, .00291738, 51.6366,   2906,16.084870," 95004D  ",
95275  
05994,95,253.24906633, .07556870, 83.7026,2428886,10.526254," 63014DA ",
95282??
23054,95, 84.31173976, .00128779, 98.6816,  37061,14.690712," 89089AZ ",
95285 N
23334,95,254.39532822, .00816383, 27.6339, 635114,14.848862," 94 71  B",
95288 N
23573,95,250.99779549,+.00200679, 51.6392,   6495,15.744348," 86017JJ ",
95288  
23633,95,251.11104710,+.00157688, 62.8246, 360182,15.291114," 95039B  ",
95299  
22892,95,251.00092200, .00133220, 98.4608, 297399,14.643541," 83075  J",
95308  
23452,95,251.17002858, .06648579, 46.5895,4639981, 6.518183," 94082F  ",
95314??
23453,95,251.21936527,+.00102548, 64.8845,  46452,16.019891," 94088A  ",
95322  
15631,95,251.03016104, .02208210, 22.8741,2483006,10.743959," 85025B  ",
95347??
18872,95,246.22342272,+.00059917, 28.8278, 232312,15.127001," 77065FW ",
96007  
21142,95,250.93986243, .01629159,  6.7444,2513809,10.617491," 91015D  ",
96020??
22750,95,236.04789038, .00049043, 99.0826,  33757,14.305490," 89089  K",
96025  

Satellite name lines are in QuickSat 2.10 format (col.19-55):

Cosmos 398      2.8  6.0 2.0 0.0  10
1 04966U 71016A   95258.10171583 +.00324299 +99753-5 +24177-3 0    32
2 04966 051.3925 162.8805 0439353 052.5320 311.4781 15.31367966838793
Cosmos 374 f    9.9              .04
1 05075U 70089AN  95258.25363619  .00313810  00000-0  18725-2 0  2764
2 05075  62.9784 307.0241 0050110  15.8646 344.4074 15.74963834246782
Pageos (DA)     2.0 12.0 0.0 0.0
1 05994U 63014DA  95253.24906633  .07556870  62012-2  28980+0 0  8905
2 05994  83.7026 225.3005 2428886 128.5745 255.6418 10.52625427191479
INT. 5A-10 R    5.1  8.6 3.0 0.0
1 15631U 85025B   95257.72364816  .01938923 -44594-5  73951-3 0  5396
2 15631  22.8628 333.8003 2361557 222.9988 115.9532 11.01140722 91088
Himawari Rk f  11.0              .01
1 18872U 77065FW  95252.55563509  .00061660  00000-0  18652-2 0  1908
2 18872  28.7540 171.7562 0213390 119.5910 243.2857 15.13468057298478
ARIANE V.42 D   3.5               20
1 21142U 91015D   95258.01339699  .01584549 -72939-5  26802-2 0  6691
2 21142   6.7336  21.0400 2411889  33.4145 339.1863 10.84659113 43791
MIR DEB  GP    8.5               .25
1 22123U 86017GP  95258.12949855  .01177938  12139-4  24434-3 0    81
2 22123  51.5986 292.2340 0004283 354.0615   6.0498 16.30284404548735
COBE K          9.9              .06
1 22750U 89089K   95236.04789038  .00049043  00000-0  18576-1 0  5954
2 22750  99.0826 268.7335 0033757 317.9065  42.5272 14.30549081295960
Jianbing caps   5.5  2.0 1.0     1.48 FSW-1 capsule
1 22870U 93063H   95258.46507016  .00279724  77058-5  21881-3 0  2010
2 22870  56.4707  36.5788 0851368  87.1597 282.6354 14.36243859 91202
C.1484 J        8.0              .18
1 22892U 83075J   95258.23984302  .00095352  00000-0  89436-2 0  7451
2 22892  98.4571 267.6200 0296463 112.2276 251.0596 14.65836112 92975
COBE Rk AZ     11.1              .01
1 23054U 89089AZ  95236.38424364  .00635090  00000-0  12634-1 0  1786
2 23054  98.6816 287.0013 0026088 255.3035 105.9324 15.44233781 52045
Wind Rk         2.0               13
1 23334U 0 00     95254.39532822 +.00816383 -64529-5 +69351-3 0  5954
2 23334 027.6339 186.3296 0635114 175.7451 184.8850 14.84886274041902
Luch Deb        8.0              .34
1 23452U 94082F   95257.23403066  .07455448  77272-5  91220-3 0  2707
2 23452  46.5330 167.4349 4196549 103.8996 305.0657  7.34726457  7577
C.2305 maneuvr. 3.0               38
1 23453U 94088A   95258.27050008  .00091316  10628-4  13093-3 0  4239
2 23453  64.8865  73.0487 0044363  84.5630 276.0572 16.03393981 41637
Raduga 32 SL-12 7.5              1.03
1 23459U 94087E   95257.05423433  .01292514 -39268-5  76029-3 0  2621
2 23459  46.4653 196.3769 6367986  79.4912 341.9923  3.63055237  6394
ODERACS-II E   11.0
1 23472U 95004D   95258.02126806  .00346307  73120-4  29839-3 0  2458
2 23472  51.6414  12.7511 0005071  37.4145 322.6921 16.12731285 35600
Mir JJ                           .24
1 23573U 86017JJ  95258.54376018  .00211793  00000-0  12243-2 0  1512
2 23573  51.6444  58.2886 0002348 325.5799  34.5009 15.77446397 18799
Interball Rk    4.0
1 23633U 95039B   95258.03866497 +.00127326 +10468-4 +50893-3 0   527
2 23633 062.8308 109.3232 0352212 117.7978 245.9302 15.30991543006574
Interball frag  6.0
1 23634U 95039C   95258.01740169  .00292574  70832-5  58631-3 0   734
2 23634  62.8043 108.5375 0352628 118.2575 245.4300 15.40362146  6586

============================================================
== bjorn.gimle@online.dextel.se ;  59.22371 N, 18.22857 E ==
==(bjorn.gimle@duesenberg.se)      +46-8-7428086          ==
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