The following list of decay predictions and elsets will be published in "Flash", although the elsets may be newer here. I have not had time to refresh the predictions though. Ted Molczan reports that he may have been the last to see 05994, because it should have decayed now. Bj"orn ========================================================================== Here are my rough estimates of decay dates until 960101. For circular orbits, they are usually correct within 20 %. For excentricity>0.1, I have used linear extrapolation to MM=15.0. (These are marked ?? - N indicates NASA/USSPACECOM prediction) This is usually OK, but the decay will be earlier for excentricities <0.3 perhaps, and any time if gravitational disturbances or radiation pressure affect the orbit. #23453 is periodically maneuvred, but will decay within three weeks if this is not done. For excentricities between 0.01 and 0.3, a mix of the two methods, or the NPOE program, is probably required. NORAD Epoch ndot2 i e MM Int.Des. Decay 22123,95,254.19784591,+.00538064, 51.6069, 7086,16.235489," 86017GP ", 95265 05075,95,251.00575054, .00371118, 62.9771, 56231,15.709049," 70089AN ", 95271 04966,95,251.23882800,+.00365467, 51.3885, 456474,15.265150," 71016A ", 95272 22870,95,250.93640275,+.00340668, 56.4615, 869459,14.317481," 93063H ", 95273 23634,95,251.06185513,+.00344777, 62.7931, 370432,15.361851," 95039C ", 95273 23472,95,251.19596198, .00291738, 51.6366, 2906,16.084870," 95004D ", 95275 05994,95,253.24906633, .07556870, 83.7026,2428886,10.526254," 63014DA ", 95282?? 23054,95, 84.31173976, .00128779, 98.6816, 37061,14.690712," 89089AZ ", 95285 N 23334,95,254.39532822, .00816383, 27.6339, 635114,14.848862," 94 71 B", 95288 N 23573,95,250.99779549,+.00200679, 51.6392, 6495,15.744348," 86017JJ ", 95288 23633,95,251.11104710,+.00157688, 62.8246, 360182,15.291114," 95039B ", 95299 22892,95,251.00092200, .00133220, 98.4608, 297399,14.643541," 83075 J", 95308 23452,95,251.17002858, .06648579, 46.5895,4639981, 6.518183," 94082F ", 95314?? 23453,95,251.21936527,+.00102548, 64.8845, 46452,16.019891," 94088A ", 95322 15631,95,251.03016104, .02208210, 22.8741,2483006,10.743959," 85025B ", 95347?? 18872,95,246.22342272,+.00059917, 28.8278, 232312,15.127001," 77065FW ", 96007 21142,95,250.93986243, .01629159, 6.7444,2513809,10.617491," 91015D ", 96020?? 22750,95,236.04789038, .00049043, 99.0826, 33757,14.305490," 89089 K", 96025 Satellite name lines are in QuickSat 2.10 format (col.19-55): Cosmos 398 2.8 6.0 2.0 0.0 10 1 04966U 71016A 95258.10171583 +.00324299 +99753-5 +24177-3 0 32 2 04966 051.3925 162.8805 0439353 052.5320 311.4781 15.31367966838793 Cosmos 374 f 9.9 .04 1 05075U 70089AN 95258.25363619 .00313810 00000-0 18725-2 0 2764 2 05075 62.9784 307.0241 0050110 15.8646 344.4074 15.74963834246782 Pageos (DA) 2.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 1 05994U 63014DA 95253.24906633 .07556870 62012-2 28980+0 0 8905 2 05994 83.7026 225.3005 2428886 128.5745 255.6418 10.52625427191479 INT. 5A-10 R 5.1 8.6 3.0 0.0 1 15631U 85025B 95257.72364816 .01938923 -44594-5 73951-3 0 5396 2 15631 22.8628 333.8003 2361557 222.9988 115.9532 11.01140722 91088 Himawari Rk f 11.0 .01 1 18872U 77065FW 95252.55563509 .00061660 00000-0 18652-2 0 1908 2 18872 28.7540 171.7562 0213390 119.5910 243.2857 15.13468057298478 ARIANE V.42 D 3.5 20 1 21142U 91015D 95258.01339699 .01584549 -72939-5 26802-2 0 6691 2 21142 6.7336 21.0400 2411889 33.4145 339.1863 10.84659113 43791 MIR DEB GP 8.5 .25 1 22123U 86017GP 95258.12949855 .01177938 12139-4 24434-3 0 81 2 22123 51.5986 292.2340 0004283 354.0615 6.0498 16.30284404548735 COBE K 9.9 .06 1 22750U 89089K 95236.04789038 .00049043 00000-0 18576-1 0 5954 2 22750 99.0826 268.7335 0033757 317.9065 42.5272 14.30549081295960 Jianbing caps 5.5 2.0 1.0 1.48 FSW-1 capsule 1 22870U 93063H 95258.46507016 .00279724 77058-5 21881-3 0 2010 2 22870 56.4707 36.5788 0851368 87.1597 282.6354 14.36243859 91202 C.1484 J 8.0 .18 1 22892U 83075J 95258.23984302 .00095352 00000-0 89436-2 0 7451 2 22892 98.4571 267.6200 0296463 112.2276 251.0596 14.65836112 92975 COBE Rk AZ 11.1 .01 1 23054U 89089AZ 95236.38424364 .00635090 00000-0 12634-1 0 1786 2 23054 98.6816 287.0013 0026088 255.3035 105.9324 15.44233781 52045 Wind Rk 2.0 13 1 23334U 0 00 95254.39532822 +.00816383 -64529-5 +69351-3 0 5954 2 23334 027.6339 186.3296 0635114 175.7451 184.8850 14.84886274041902 Luch Deb 8.0 .34 1 23452U 94082F 95257.23403066 .07455448 77272-5 91220-3 0 2707 2 23452 46.5330 167.4349 4196549 103.8996 305.0657 7.34726457 7577 C.2305 maneuvr. 3.0 38 1 23453U 94088A 95258.27050008 .00091316 10628-4 13093-3 0 4239 2 23453 64.8865 73.0487 0044363 84.5630 276.0572 16.03393981 41637 Raduga 32 SL-12 7.5 1.03 1 23459U 94087E 95257.05423433 .01292514 -39268-5 76029-3 0 2621 2 23459 46.4653 196.3769 6367986 79.4912 341.9923 3.63055237 6394 ODERACS-II E 11.0 1 23472U 95004D 95258.02126806 .00346307 73120-4 29839-3 0 2458 2 23472 51.6414 12.7511 0005071 37.4145 322.6921 16.12731285 35600 Mir JJ .24 1 23573U 86017JJ 95258.54376018 .00211793 00000-0 12243-2 0 1512 2 23573 51.6444 58.2886 0002348 325.5799 34.5009 15.77446397 18799 Interball Rk 4.0 1 23633U 95039B 95258.03866497 +.00127326 +10468-4 +50893-3 0 527 2 23633 062.8308 109.3232 0352212 117.7978 245.9302 15.30991543006574 Interball frag 6.0 1 23634U 95039C 95258.01740169 .00292574 70832-5 58631-3 0 734 2 23634 62.8043 108.5375 0352628 118.2575 245.4300 15.40362146 6586 ============================================================ == bjorn.gimle@online.dextel.se ; 59.22371 N, 18.22857 E == ==(bjorn.gimle@duesenberg.se) +46-8-7428086 == ============================================================ ************ Sent via DN Online (Sweden) UUCP Gateway **************