Re: Decay Alert PAM-D for US this evening

From: Michael McCants (mmccants@jump.net)
Date: Tue Sep 10 2002 - 20:03:11 EDT

  • Next message: Matson, Robert: "RE: Decay Alert PAM-D for US this evening"

    There have been two more elsets for this PAM issued by Spacecom:
    
    1 22448U 93007C   02253.84481412  .23740802  11679-5  39301-3 0  5061
    2 22448  34.5188 187.4720 0107103 287.7602  71.1672 16.30142129238156
    
    1 22448U 93007C   02253.90593065  .33134694  11357-5  61471-3 0  5070
    2 22448  34.5428 186.9879 0077676 289.6240  69.6222 16.35460784238161
    
    I believe that the decay has shifted to the time frame 02:00 to 03:00 UT
    this evening.
    
    There is a pass across the southern US about 02:30 UT:
    
      30.334  97.760  Austin, TX
    
    ***  2002 Sept 10  Tue evening  *** Times are PM CDT  ***
    
    22448 GPS 2-18 Rk                3.3 m 5.5
     H  M  S  Tim Al Azi C Dir  Mag Dys F  Hgt  Shd  Rng (miles)
     9 31 37  0.1 21 333    73  ***   0 5  127 -140  324
     9 32 17  0.1 26  10 C  91  ***   0 5  128 -219  273
     9 32 58  0.1 21  47   108  ***   0 5  128 -309  331
    
    The PAM should be a little lower than this and it will be in the Earth's shadow.
    The predicted time will not be off more than about 1 minute.
    
    Since the perigee point is south of the equator, I think there is
    a better chance that it will decay some time (30-40 minutes) before
    or after this pass, but I think it's worth taking a look.
    
    I may try to post again in a little while if there is another new elset.
    
    There is another pass about 04:05 UT and there is a small chance that it
    might not decay until then.
    
    Mike McCants
    Austin, TX
    
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