Decay watch: 2002 September 15

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun Sep 15 2002 - 16:31:14 EDT

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     From my updated Decay Watch page - check there for more predicted 
    elsets:
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #15909 = 85- 61 A = Molniya 3-25
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Sep 15 11:32     Sep 19 03:50 +-2d        51.4 S     7.2 E
    SatEvo     Sep 15 20:10     Sep 19 06:17 +-1.5d
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 3-25                                     7210 x 100 km
    1 15909U 85061A   02258.63475796  .51390668  42073-5  33532-2 0   367
    2 15909  62.2074 110.1903 3543189 265.3042  55.3456  8.63889777126838
    
    Note: Eclipse entry occurs at ~1300 km altitude southbound near
    15 deg S in the evening. It leaves eclipse northbound near 55 deg S
    at ~300 km high on the climb from perigee. The predicted elsets
    are very uncertain.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #18086 = 87- 48 D = Cosmos 1849 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Sep 15 17:16     Sep 19 14:02 +-2d        19.3 S    86.5 E
    SatEvo     Sep 15 21:20     Sep 20 05:22 +-1.6d
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1849 r                                    2086 x 107 km
    1 18086U 87048D   02258.62692112  .18271987  12288-4  62855-3 0  9825
    2 18086  62.7903 116.8074 1324180 199.9152 260.2178 13.43504177120659
    
    Note: This enters eclipse southbound near 22 deg N in the evening
    and leaves eclipse near S apex at 63 deg S before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27377 = 02-  5 F = Iridium 90 Delta 2 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Sep 15 02:45     Sep 17 00:55 +-1d        22.3 S   72.6 W
    SatEvo     Sep 15 20:00     Sep 17 01:06 +-10h       38.7 N   69.6 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Irid 90 Del2 r   7.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   10       221 x 175 km
    1 27377U 02005F   02258.59950525  .04118844 -14617-5  95865-3 0  3120
    2 27377  84.3781 299.4836 0034518 244.8421 276.4944 16.28020659 33625
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Irid 90 Del2 r   7.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   10       209 x 168 km
    1 27377U 02005F   02259.00177108  .05049612  11077-1  85908-3 0 93120
    2 27377  84.3767 299.1301 0030801 243.1246 116.5601 16.31572186 33693
    Irid 90 Del2 r   7.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   10       197 x 161 km
    1 27377U 02005F   02259.30814125  .06417512  19892-1  78265-3 0 93120
    2 27377  84.3754 298.8594 0027334 241.8100 117.9135 16.35045884 33747
    Irid 90 Del2 r   7.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   10       185 x 154 km
    1 27377U 02005F   02259.55271148  .08627919  44296-1  56025-3 0 93121
    2 27377  84.3741 298.6422 0023866 240.7553 119.0058 16.38657599 33783
    Irid 90 Del2 r   7.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   10       168 x 143 km
    1 27377U 02005F   02259.79663771  .14631950  15981+0  37667-3 0 93129
    2 27377  84.3723 298.4242 0018843 239.6968 120.1165 16.44018863 33826
    Irid 90 Del2 r   7.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   10       153 x 134 km
    1 27377U 02005F   02259.91823315  .25569835  56760+0  33156-3 0 93128
    2 27377  84.3708 298.3147 0014576 239.1655 120.6909 16.48626166 33847
    Irid 90 Del2 r   7.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   10       139 x 125 km
    1 27377U 02005F   02259.97887291  .47371977  23576+1  35366-3 0 93124
    2 27377  84.3696 298.2597 0010960 238.8989 120.9935 16.52726806 33850
    
    Note: I have this decaying northbound a little beyond the end of the
    final SatEvo-predicted rev above. This puts it a bit E of New York
    heading towards Maine.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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