Decay watch: 2003 September 3

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Sep 03 2003 - 14:45:55 EDT

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Below is a summary of the latest update to my Decay Watch page.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #25641 = 99-  9 D = ArabSat 3A Ariane Spelda

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
SCC        Sep  3 09:52     Sep  4 10:07 +-21h        3.6 S    82.3 W
SatEvo     Sep  3 18:35     Sep  4 10:45 +-8h         2.8 N    78.6 E

Latest elset:
ArabSat 3A Ariane Spelda                         522 x 146 km
1 25641U 99009D   03246.32385153  .13214870 -31588-4  21773-2 0  8717
2 25641   6.6447 208.0672 0280032 339.2915  21.2136 15.78620399 83779

SatEvo prediction:
ArabSat 3A Ariane Spelda                         439 x 142 km
1 25641U 99009D   03246.76367059  .19962272  55270-1  19896-2 0 98714
2 25641   6.6440 204.3781 0222883 346.5953  12.8221 15.94189752 83845
ArabSat 3A Ariane Spelda                         380 x 139 km
1 25641U 99009D   03247.01304972  .25736635  10911+0  18655-2 0 98710
2 25641   6.6435 202.2461 0180942 350.8163   8.8571 16.05417464 83885
ArabSat 3A Ariane Spelda                         298 x 135 km
1 25641U 99009D   03247.26038429  .41432158  41226+0  17616-2 0 98718
2 25641   6.6428 200.0917 0123324 355.0818   4.7982 16.21184064 83925
ArabSat 3A Ariane Spelda                         269 x 133 km
1 25641U 99009D   03247.32178707  .51917736  75013+0  17479-2 0 98718
2 25641   6.6426 199.5482 0103205 356.1577   3.7636 16.26849409 83934
ArabSat 3A Ariane Spelda                         231 x 130 km
1 25641U 99009D   03247.38294392  .75586868  19777+1  17624-2 0 98715
2 25641   6.6423 199.0019 0077141 357.2393   2.7183 16.34405108 83949

Note: I estimate that this will decay a short distance into the orbit
following the one given by the final SatEvo elset above. This puts it
over the Indian Ocean just to the S of India.
_____________________________________________________________________


Alan
-- 
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
         *


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