RE: Low, very bright and stable

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@rogers.com)
Date: Sun Sep 12 2004 - 08:47:52 EDT

  • Next message: Edward S Light: "Re: Low, very bright and stable"

    Jim Hale wrote:
    
    > Last evening (9th) at about 8:25 central I saw a very
    > bright (- mag) sat going from south-southwest to
    > northeast. It reached about 40 degrees elevation in
    > the southeast.
    > 
    > Went into shadow around az 90 still about 35-40 deg
    > elevation. It was going pretty fast so I believe it
    > was low.
    > 
    > It was stable in brightness, so don't think it was a
    > rocket body.
    
    Based on your co-ordinates of the early 1990's, a search within 7 minutes of the
    reported time, and a 20 deg radius of az 135, el 40 deg, revealed only two
    possible candidates:
    
    1 28412U 98067AD  04251.50683843  .00048091  00000-0  39487-3 0   128
    2 28412  51.6376 265.5288 0005113 107.4841 252.6774 15.69941293   527
    
    1 28386U 98067AE  04251.44214869  .00241819  00000-0  18360-2 0    94
    2 28386  51.6423 265.8451 0004943 123.1243 237.1566 15.71026803   369
    
    They were headed NE, and culminated near az 135 deg, at 24 to 28 deg elevation,
    a bit lower than reported, but elevations tend to look higher than they are.
    Both entered eclipse at az 93 deg, about 7 deg below their elevation at
    culmination.
    
    98067AD was closest in time and observed elevation.
    
    Both are small pieces of debris from the recent ISS EVA. Kevin Fetter has
    observed several of them, and found 98067AD to be the brightest. Examining his
    video of it:
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat/Sep-2004/0059.html
    
    I estimate its standard magnitude at 9 (1000 km, 90 deg phase angle).
    
    Its predicted magnitude was about 7 at the time of your observation, so for it
    to have been as bright as reported, it must have made a specular reflection.
    
    Recent elements of both candidates:
    
    1 28412U 98067AD  04255.38919014  .00053197  00000-0  42845-3 0   181
    2 28412  51.6372 245.7024 0005324 123.0242 237.1267 15.70361846  1139
    
    1 28386U 98067AE  04256.14454703  .00351203  00000-0  23068-2 0   156
    2 28386  51.6398 241.7433 0005142 149.4813 210.5837 15.74111658  1104
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
    
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