I caution the reader that I have a poor track record guessing classified payloads far in advance of launch. Spaceflight Now reported recently that the final T-IVB vehicle to be launched from CCAFS, on 2005 Feb 20, has NUS (no upper stage) and a 66 ft fairing: http://www.spaceflightnow.com/titan/b30/040825rollout.html This T-IVB was originally to have been launched from VAFB, but was physically moved from there to CCAFS. Two VAFB T-IVB NUS payloads employed 66 ft fairings: KeyHoles and Lacrosses. The 98 deg inclination of the former cannot be reached from CCAFS; the latter have flown into both 57 deg and 68 deg orbits. Lacrosse launches have alternated between the 57 deg and 68 deg inclinations: Spacecraft Year Vehicle Site Inc Present status Lacrosse 1 1988 Shuttle CCAFS 57 deg de-orbited 1997 Lacrosse 2 1991 T-IVA VAFB 68 deg in orbit Lacrosse 3 1997 T-IVA VAFB 57 deg in orbit Lacrosse 4 2000 T-IVB VAFB 68 deg in orbit So it would appear that Lacrosse 5 should be targeted for 57 deg. The T-IVA that launched NOSS 2-1 in 1990 from CCAFS, dog-legged into a low 61 deg orbit, so I suspect that a T-IVB could place a Lacrosse into the 57 deg inclination orbit from CCAFS. Why divert from VAFB to CCAFS? My guess is that it was done to make room for what has become a rather crowded VAFB launch calendar in 2005. Moreover, there are three obviously new NRO payloads manifested on Delta 2 and Delta IV for launch in 2005 from VAFB. My guess is that at least some are developmental payloads associated with FIA and possibly SBIRS, in which case launching them on time probably has greater urgency than launching a Lacrosse, given that 3 remain in orbit. Among previously launched VAFB payloads, the only other candidate besides Lacrosse that might fit, is one like USA 144; however, that one reportedly employed a 50 ft fairing. The launch was in darkness, and as a result, none of the photos I have seen show the fairing in sufficient detail to judge/measure its length. USA 144 entered a low 63.4 parking orbit that might be reachable from CCAFS, but probably would be a stretch. The 1990 shuttle mission that launched Misty 1 into a 62 deg orbit, probably pushed the limit for safe launches from CCAFS headed up the east coast. However, USA 144 is manoeuvrable, so it may be able to make up any difference between the inclination reachable by the T-IVB and the desired final orbit. In any case, unless I learn that USA 144's fairing was 66 ft, not 50 ft, I will not seriously consider the possibility that the final CCAFS launch is anything other than Lacrosse 5. Ted Molczan ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subscribe/Unsubscribe info, Frequently Asked Questions, SeeSat-L archive: http://www.satobs.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
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