NROL-41 - search elements

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Mon Sep 20 2010 - 22:45:15 UTC

  • Next message: Ted Molczan: "NROL-41 - search elements for T-0 Sep 21, 03:31:30 UTC"

    NROL-41 is scheduled for launch from VAFB on an Atlas V-501, tonight, Sep 21, between 03:29 UTC and
    04:28 UTC.
    
    I offer the following search elements, based on launch at the start of the window:
    
                                                             395 X 409 km
    1 77001U          10264.14965274  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    09
    2 77001 123.0000  86.9000 0010000   0.0000 137.5000 15.55000000    09
    
                                                             493 X 506 km
    1 77002U          10264.14965275  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    01
    2 77002 123.0000  86.9000 0010000   0.0000 137.5000 15.22000000    04
    
                                                             600 X 614 km
    1 77003U          10264.14965276  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    03
    2 77003 123.0000  86.9000 0010000   0.0000 137.5000 14.87000000    05
    
                                                             622 X 636 km
    1 77004U          10264.14965277  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    05
    2 77004 123.0000  86.9000 0010000   0.0000 137.5000 14.80000000    09
    
                                                             702 X 716 km
    1 77005U          10264.14965278  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    07
    2 77005 123.0000  86.9000 0010000   0.0000 137.5000 14.55000000    02
    
                                                             801 X 815 km
    1 77006U          10264.14965279  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    09
    2 77006 123.0000  86.9000 0010000   0.0000 137.5000 14.25000000    00
    
    In the event of a delayed launch, I will post revisions.
    
    I suspect that the mean motion is likely to be between 14.87 and 14.55 rev/d, which is bracketed by
    elsets 77003, 77004 and 77005.
    
    My guess of the bus dimensions is 7.5 m long, 3.5 m diameter, which results in estimated standard
    visual magnitude of 5 (1000 km, 90 deg phase angle).
    
    The above elements reveal morning and evening visibility in the northern hemisphere, with the best
    visibility well south of 55 N.
    
    I have a couple of passes pre-dawn.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
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