UARS: predicted time of decay continuing to trend later

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Fri Sep 23 2011 - 15:26:37 UTC

  • Next message: Allen Thomson: "Re: Question on URAS - hearing it"

    USSTRATCOM has issued a new TLE, epoch 11266.5014880, which Satevo propagates to decay on Sep 24 about 04:24 h UTC. I
    have added it to the plot of recent decay predictions, which shows the continuing trend to later decay:
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/UARS_decay_predictions_v7b.pdf
    
    It now appears that decay will occur on Sep 24, roughly between 01:00 and 04:00 UTC, but if the trend continues, it
    could well happen even later. 
    
    The following ground track plot shows that UARS will pass over North America and Europe several times during this
    period, but it will spend most of its time over oceans and sparsely populated land.
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/UARS_decay_2011_Sep_24_UTC_v1.jpg
    
    Time permitting, I may have more precise "what-if" TLEs and ground track estimates later.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    P.S. The Aerospace Corporation has just issued an updated prediction: 24 SEP 2011 @ 03:16 UTC  5 hours, based on
    prediction epoch 23 SEP 2011 @ 12:02:08.552 UTC:
    
    http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html
    
    This falls within the range of recent Satevo predictions.
    
    
    
    _______________________________________________
    Seesat-l mailing list
    http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l
    



    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Sep 23 2011 - 15:27:17 UTC