UARS: predicted time of decay continuing to trend later

From: Ted Molczan (ssl3molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Fri Sep 23 2011 - 18:29:05 UTC

  • Next message: Dale Ireland: "RE: UARS: predicted time of decay continuing to trend later"

    USSTRATCOM has issued a new TLE, epoch 11266.7122320, which Satevo propagates to decay on Sep 24 about 05:40 h UTC,
    continuing the recent trend of ever later predictions. I have added it to the plot of recent decay predictions, along
    with Harro Zimmer's new prediction.
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/UARS_decay_predictions_v9b.pdf
    
    Recent decay estimates have been Sep 24, roughly between 03:00 and 06:00 UTC, but if the trend continues, it could well
    occur a few hours later, which would begin to bring southbound passes over North America into play.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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