Satevo propagates USSTRATCOM's epoch 11267.0485490 TLE to decay on Sep 24 at 04:20 UTC. I have also added a new predictions by The Aerospace Corporation, 05:10 +/- 2 h. Received after I had completed this plot is a new USSTRATCOM TIP message, predicting decay at 04:16 +/- 2 h. Computing the trend using all of today's predictions made during Sep 23 16:25 - Sep 04 01:10 UTC, results in decay on Sep 24 at 04:24 UTC. http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/UARS_decay_predictions_v13b.pdf I have no idea when it will decay, but a 10 minute transit of North America would begin no later than about 04:18 UTC, perhaps a couple min earlier. Prospective observers can use the following propagated TLEs: 1 70001U 11267.10901875 .26674733 00000-0 18181-3 0 96408 2 70001 56.9317 262.1851 0003825 314.7110 45.2579 16.53214707109188 1 70002U 11267.16940316 1.39272225 00000-0 41998-3 0 96405 2 70002 56.9300 261.8783 0001925 314.8483 45.1360 16.59222312109199 Approximate ground track, generated from earlier propagated elsets: Time Lat Long Alt-km ----------------------------------------- 04:16:30 45.190 N 124.306 W 88.091 04:17:00 46.497 N 122.093 W 88.293 04:17:30 47.754 N 119.768 W 88.487 04:18:00 48.956 N 117.325 W 88.671 04:18:30 50.098 N 114.759 W 88.842 04:19:00 51.174 N 112.066 W 89.000 04:19:30 52.179 N 109.244 W 89.142 04:20:00 53.107 N 106.291 W 89.266 04:20:30 53.951 N 103.209 W 89.372 04:21:00 54.707 N 100.002 W 89.458 04:21:30 55.368 N 96.677 W 89.523 04:22:00 55.929 N 93.244 W 89.565 04:22:30 56.384 N 89.717 W 89.585 04:23:00 56.729 N 86.113 W 89.581 04:23:30 56.961 N 82.451 W 89.552 04:24:00 57.077 N 78.754 W 89.499 04:24:30 57.076 N 75.045 W 89.422 04:25:00 56.958 N 71.348 W 89.319 04:25:30 56.724 N 67.687 W 89.191 04:26:00 56.378 N 64.083 W 89.039 Ted Molczan _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l
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