Harro Zimmer's Starshine-1 Decay Report

(Latest Report On Top)

Final Report #15

SeeSat-L
Feb-00 : Starshine-1 decay
From: Harro.Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Sat Feb 19 2000 - 07:35:55 PST

Report time: 15.00 UTC
1990-030B (#25769) Starshine-1

I have received a lot of eMails with questions about the end of Starshine. Here the facts:

This is well within my last MPM prediction - 15:38.5 UTC +/- 08 minutes over the South Pacific. But there some trouble comes in from a very late released (and somewhat strange) ELSET 00049-601...
Let me finally say: The decay occurs between 15:05 and 15:45 UTC over the South Pacific or South Atlantic.

Harro
Berlin, Germany


Report #14

SeeSat-L
Feb-00 : Starshine-1 Decay Feb 18/4
From: Harro.Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Fri Feb 18 2000 - 10:35:04 PST

Report time 18:00 UTC
1999-030B (#25769) Starshine-1

We are still missing SpaceCom's FINAL REPORT. A very careful analysis with the actual geomagnetic data and solar flux input shows with the last(?) ELSET 00049.480... the decay on 18 February, 15:38.5 UTC +/- 08 minutes (49.6S.276.6E) on an ascending pass over the South Pacific. If Starshine survived this point it could be crossed the far southern region of Chile/ Argentina.

Harro
Berlin, Germany


Report #13

SeeSat-L
Feb-00 : Starshine-1 decay Feb 18/ 3
From: Harro.Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Fri Feb 18 2000 - 05:56:53 PST

Report time: 14:00 UTC
1999-30B (#25769) Starshine-1

MPM delivers with the last released ELSET - 00049.480... - the decay on 18 February, 15:36 UTC +/- 11 minutes (51.3S, 264.7E) on a northbound pass over the South Pacific.
SpaceCom shows the decay 9 minutes later on the same pass.

Harro
Berlin, Germany


Report #12

SeeSat-L
Feb-00 : Starshine-1 decay Feb 18 /2
From: Harro.Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Fri Feb 18 2000 - 03:58:09 PST

Report time 11:30 UTC
1999-030B (#25769) Starshine-1

The last released ELSET 00049.359... indicates an earlier decay:
18 February, 15:35 UTC +/- 11 minutes (51.7S, 258.2E) on an ascending pass over the South Pacific.
SpaceCom shows the decay 13 minutes later on the same pass over the South Atlantic.

Harro
Berlin, Germany


Report #11

SeeSat-L
Feb-00 : Starshine-1 decay Feb 18 /1
From: Harro.Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Fri Feb 18 2000 - 01:31:13 PST

Report time 09.15 UTC
1999-030B (#25769) Starshine-1

The SpaceCom needs a long way to come near my preceding predictions. Now we agree within one minute.
MPM delivers with the ELSETs 00049.494... - 00049.237...
the decay on 18 February, 15:57 UTC +/- 22 minutes (2.8N, 340.6E) on an ascending pass over the Mid Atlantic.

Harro
Berlin, Germany


Report #10

SeeSat-L
Feb-00 : Starshine-1 Decay Forecast Feb 17 /2
From: Harro.Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Thu Feb 17 2000 - 14:07:40 PST

Report time: 22:00 UTC
1999-030B (#25769) Starshine-1

MPM delivers with the standard atmosphere model and the ELSETs 00048.383... - 00048.749... the decay on 18 February, 15:33 UTC +/- 90 minutes (46.8S, 227.7E) on an ascending pass over the South Pacific.

MPM with the atmosphere model 2 shows: 18 February, 16:33 UTC +/- 90 minutes (34.5N, 117.2E) on a descending pass over China.

Harro
Berlin, Germany


Report #9

SeeSat-L
Feb-00 : Starshine-1 Decay Forecast Feb 17 /1
From: Harro.Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Thu Feb 17 2000 - 07:55:53 PST

Report time 15:30 UTC
1999-030B (#25769) Starshine-1

MPm delivers with the ELSETs 00047.525 - 00048.383... the decay on 18 February, 15:28 UTC +/- 03 hours (39.5S, 207.0E) on a descending pass over the South Pacific.

Calculations with another atmospheric model- Jacchia 71 - (lower density at the same altitude) shows the decay exactly one hour later (16:28 UTC, 39.7N, 109.0E on a descending pass over China).
The relatively small time difference between the two data sets shows that we are now at the right decay time region.

Harro
Berlin, Germany


Report #8

SeeSat-L
Feb-00 : Starshine-1 Decay Forecast Feb 16 /2
From: Harro.Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Wed Feb 16 2000 - 12:44:25 PST

Report time 20:30 UTC
199-030B (#25769) Starshine-1

With the ELSETs 00047.218.. - 00047.525... MPM delivers the
decay on 18 February, 13:43 UTC +/- 04 hours (16.6N, 179.8E) on a descending pass over the Pacific.
BTW: Tomorrow a this time we will have a more reliable - but not a definitive - prediction. Please have patience until Friday morning (UTC)...

Harro
Berlin, Germany


Report #7

SeeSat-L
Feb-00 : Starshine-1 decay Forecast Feb 16
From: Harro.Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de
Date: Wed Feb 16 2000 - 08:35:33 PST

Report time 16:00 UTC
1999-030B (#25769) Starshine-1

Against my optimistic view yesterday we saw later an impressive divergence between the three predictions. A careful analysis based on the ELSETs 00046.542... - 00047.218... don't confirm the SpaceCom forecast for a decay around 21:06 UTC.
I was checking two different atmosphere models. My standard atmosphere (MSIS-90) delivers:
18 February, 14:24 UTC +/- 05 hours (21.6S, 354.2E)
The second model (Jacchia 71) delivers:
18 February, 17:05 UTC +/- 05 hours (49.4S, 297.1E)

Harro
Berlin, Germany


Report #6

SeeSat-L
Feb-00 : Starshine-1 decay Forecast Feb 15
From: Harro.Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Tue Feb 15 2000 - 13:07:50 PST

Report time 21:00 UTC
1999-030B (#25769) Starshine-1

SpaceCom, Alan Pickup and myself are now on the same track. The MPM program delivers with the ELSETs 00046.235... - 00046.788... the decay on 18 February, 11:44.2 UTC +/- 06 hours (26.8N, 67.2E)
The ELSETs shows over the day a slight tendency for a shift forward.

Harro
Berlin, Germany


Report #5

SeeSat-L
Feb-00 : Starshine-1 decay Forecast Feb 14
From: Harro.Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Mon Feb 14 2000 - 13:16:48 PST

Report time 20:30 UTC
1999-030B (#25769) Starshine-1

MPM shows with the ELSETs 00045.065... - 00045.619... and a solar flux (10.7 cm) value of 152 the decay on Feb 18, 18:50 UTC +/- 12 hours
This shift backward reflects the slight decrease of the solar and geomagnetic activity over the last 40 hours.

The reentry trajectory shows the following positions:

on a northbound pass over the South Pacific. Don't overestimate these positions. The hour of truth comes not before the last few revs of the satellite.

Harro
Berlin, Germany


Report #4

SeeSat-L Feb-00 : Starshine-1 Decay Forecast Feb 14
From: Harro.Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Sun Feb 13 2000 - 10:48:00 PST

Report time 18:30 UTC
1999-030B (#25769) Starshine-1

MPM delivers with the ELSETs 00043.274... - 00044.448...
a decay on 18 February, 10:32 UTC +/- 12 hours
This 24 hour ELSET sample reflects with its decay time shift forward the small increase of the geomagnetic activity.

Harro
Berlin, Germany


Report #3

SeeSat-L Feb-00 : Starshine-1 Decay Forecast Feb 12

From: Harro.Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Sat Feb 12 2000 - 07:33:02 PST
Report time 15:30 UTC
1999-030B (#25769) STARSHINE-1

MPM shows with the ELSETs 00042.903... - 00043.274... the decay on 18 February, 13:19 UTC + /- 15 hours
There is some noise in this ELSET group with a fluctation of +/- 30 minutes around this value.

Harro
Berlin, Germany


Report #2

SeeSat-L Feb-00 : STARSHINE-1 Decay Forecast Feb 11
From: Harro.Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Report time 19:00 UTC
1999-030B (#25769) STARSHINE-1

With the ELSETs 00041.231... - 00042.408...
MPM predicts the decay on 18 February, 13:32 UTC +/- 15 hours.
The last three days shows an apparent shift of the decay to the second half of February (UTC), but don't overestimate the tendency at this moment. Let us wait and see...

Harro
Berlin, Germany


Report #1

SeeSat-L Feb-00 : STARSHINE-1 Decay Forecast Feb 10
From: Harro.Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Thu Feb 10 2000 - 07:51:08 PST
Report time:15:45 UTC
1999-030B (#25769) STARSHINE-1

MPM shows with the ELSETs 00040.2399 - 00041.2317...
the decay on 18 February, 10:17 UTC +/- 12 hours

Harro
Berlin, Germany


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