IRIDFLAR now predicts solar panel flares

From: Matson, Robert (ROBERT.D.MATSON@saic.com)
Date: Thu Apr 26 2001 - 20:29:50 PDT

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    Greetings all,
    
    I finally managed a several-hour brainstorm and came up with an
    algorithm for coding the articulation of the solar arrays of
    Iridium satellites.  I've tested it against the recent unexpected
    flares and "double flares" observed from SW Virginia (IR 41 & 77,
    21 April), near Atlanta (IR 12 & 86, 26 March), in the UK
    (IR 5, 2 March) and (IR 35, 5 March).  In all cases, the code
    predicted a flare off the solar arrays.
    
    The magnitudes have not been calibrated yet, so the code can only
    tell when the conditions are right for a solar array flare.  The
    magnitudes predicted should only be interpreted as gross estimates
    since the solar array pointing is not known to the same accuracy
    as the MMAs, nor is the BRDF falloff with offaxis angle known.
    But at least we now have a tool that indicates when solar array
    flares can be expected.
    
    Obviously I'm keen to test to code out a little longer before
    releasing it.  If I can get a few volunteers to provide their
    coordinates, I'll see when the next solar array flares are
    predicted for those locations.
    
    Cheers,
    Rob
    
    
    
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