Astra 1G rk decay watch

Craig Cholar (3432P@VM1.CC.NPS.NAVY.MIL)
Wed, 03 Dec 97 16:35:12 PST

Using Alan Pickup's elsets, here are some places the decaying Astra
1G Proton rocket will pass over during what might be the final orbits.
All times are UT.  The UT date is 12/5.

UNP = Unlit Nighttime Pass

01:18       Morning terminator crossing, NE China & W. Mongolia
01:41       Daytime pass between Australia and New Caledonia
02:09-02:17 UNP, N. Chile, Bolivia, Amazon basin, Amazon delta
02:31       UNP, N. Portugal
02:33-02:34 UNP, France
02:35       UNP, Germany
02:36       UNP, Czech Republic
02:37       UNP, Poland
02:38-02:40 UNP, Ukraine
02:41       UNP, SE Russia
02:42-02:44 Visible pass, Kazakstan
02:45       Morning terminator crossing, E. Kazakstan
03:05-03:12 Daytime pass from NW to SE Australia
03:16       Daytime pass southernmost New Zealand
03:42-03:47 UNP, N. Peru, Equador, Colombia, Venezuela
04:03-04:04 UNP, S. England
o4:05       UNP, Benelux region
04:06       UNP, N. Germany
04:07       UNP, Poland
04:08-04:09 UNP, Ukraine
04:10       Visible pass, Ukraine
04:11       Visible pass, SE Russia
04:12       Morning terminator crossing, Caspian Sea
04:35-04:38 Daytime pass over SW Australia

---  Alan suggested decay at about 04:50, which puts it somewhere
---  over the Pacific between Australia and Central America.  In
---  case it survives that perigee, here are some further locations:

05:15       UNP, Central America
05:18-05:19 UNP, Cuba, Bahamas
05:33       UNP, S. Ireland
05:34       UNP, S. England
05:35       UNP, Benelux region
05:36       UNP, Germany
05:37       Visible pass, Austria, Czech Republic
06:43-06:45 UNP, central Mexico
06:45-06:46 UNP, gulf coast of Texas
06:47       UNP, Louisiana, Mississippi
06:48       UNP, N. Alabama
06:49       UNP, Kentucky
06:50       UNP, S. Ohio, W. Pennsylvania
06:51       UNP, central New York
06:52       UNP, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine
06:53-06:55 UNP, New Brunswick, Labrador

As I write this, perigee is occuring in the southern hemisphere,
near 33 deg. S, on the northbound leg.

Craig Cholar