Imminent decay of Progress M-37 Soyuz rocket
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 22 Dec 1997 19:30:42 +0000
The latest elset from OIG (now reachable at last) for the Soyuz-U rocket
which launched Progress M-37 is:
Progress M-37 Soyuz r 174 x 157 km
1 25103U 97081B 97356.56338023 .08771184 12429-4 60206-3 0 105
2 25103 51.5969 217.8316 0013000 82.3348 277.9176 16.40092391 361
My SatEvo analysis indicates that decay should occur around midnight UTC
tonight (give or take one orbit).
Predicted elsets:
Progress M-37 Soyuz r 162 x 148 km
1 25103U 97081B 97356.74592845 .13282947 13187+0 41890-3 0 90103
2 25103 51.5958 216.7959 0009973 83.1096 277.0038 16.44100734 399
Progress M-37 Soyuz r 156 x 145 km
1 25103U 97081B 97356.80667406 .16267902 21012+0 36525-3 0 90108
2 25103 51.5953 216.4498 0008736 83.3685 276.7309 16.45881597 404
Progress M-37 Soyuz r 149 x 140 km
1 25103U 97081B 97356.86734560 .21444860 39644+0 32202-3 0 90104
2 25103 51.5947 216.1031 0007294 83.6279 276.4552 16.48136018 419
Progress M-37 Soyuz r 139 x 132 km
1 25103U 97081B 97356.92791856 .33179289 10795+1 29536-3 0 90108
2 25103 51.5939 215.7557 0005488 83.8878 276.1747 16.51324600 422
Progress M-37 Soyuz r 121 x 117 km
1 25103U 97081B 97356.98832990 1.04130708 14171+2 36817-3 0 90104
2 25103 51.5924 215.4070 0002648 84.1487 275.8814 16.57787886 435
This final orbit carries it over the area of Vancouver/Seattle at 00:10
UTC (close to perigee), then SE across the USA towards New Orleans at
00:17 and onwards to a southbound crossing of the equator at 63 deg W at
00:27. A re-entry along this arc is very possible.
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/