Decay watch; Dec 1
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 1 Dec 1999 18:24:53 +0000
#1844 = 65-106 B = Cosmos 100 rocket
I calculate that this decayed at Dec 1 03:39 UTC +-30m near 23.1 S,
35.9 W. I think that it should have survived a southbound pass over
Canada on its final orbit, with the decay following the subsequent
equator crossing off Brazil. My predicted elset for the final rev:
Cosmos 100 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 12.1 125 x 118 km
1 01844U 65106B 99335.11770287 .97604965 17181+2 41549-3 0 93216
2 01844 64.9326 272.8920 0004920 246.1980 113.7504 16.56773860861234
#25960 = 99- 61 E = Shenzhou debris (Orbital Module?)
My current prediction is for decay at Dec 1 23:15 +-2h near 23.1 S,
137.3 W. I place this over the southern Pacific on the approach to the
northbound equator crossing at the end of the final predicted orbit...
SZ-1 Orb Mod? 3.0 3.0 0.0 5.0 d 10 136 x 122 km
1 25960U 99061E 99335.91432697 .44485287 22954+1 24810-3 0 90517
2 25960 42.5880 309.7312 0010489 223.7448 136.1720 16.53966279 1755
SpaceCom puts the decay earlier in that orbit, at a southbound equator
crossing to the S of India. If it survives long enough, it reaches S
Mexico at 23:30 UTC and passes just S of Tampa, Florida, at 23:34.
More details at
http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
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