Decay watch; Dec 1

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 1 Dec 1999 18:24:53 +0000

#1844 = 65-106 B = Cosmos 100 rocket
  I calculate that this decayed at Dec 1 03:39 UTC +-30m near 23.1 S,
35.9 W. I think that it should have survived a southbound pass over
Canada on its final orbit, with the decay following the subsequent
equator crossing off Brazil. My predicted elset for the final rev:
Cosmos 100 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v 12.1       125 x 118 km
1 01844U 65106B   99335.11770287  .97604965  17181+2  41549-3 0 93216
2 01844  64.9326 272.8920 0004920 246.1980 113.7504 16.56773860861234

#25960 = 99- 61 E = Shenzhou debris (Orbital Module?)
  My current prediction is for decay at Dec 1 23:15 +-2h near 23.1 S,
137.3 W. I place this over the southern Pacific on the approach to the
northbound equator crossing at the end of the final predicted orbit... 
SZ-1 Orb Mod?    3.0  3.0  0.0  5.0 d   10       136 x 122 km
1 25960U 99061E   99335.91432697  .44485287  22954+1  24810-3 0 90517
2 25960  42.5880 309.7312 0010489 223.7448 136.1720 16.53966279  1755
SpaceCom puts the decay earlier in that orbit, at a southbound equator
crossing to the S of India. If it survives long enough, it reaches S
Mexico at 23:30 UTC and passes just S of Tampa, Florida, at 23:34.

More details at
      http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/

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