FW: ISS magnitude surge

From: G6GAK - Mike Tyrrell (g6gak@btinternet.com)
Date: Sat Dec 15 2001 - 04:58:54 EST

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    Predicting flares from the main solar array is quite difficult since the
    software needs to work out the flight mode of ISS and take care of the
    tracking of the solar panels to the sun. Also with the recent problems on
    the tracking motors it appears that sometimes the panels have been in
    different orientations (see our stills from the 15th October at
    http://www.btinternet.com/~mikejtyrrell/anim_frameset.htm ). These problems
    may be fixed now following the spacewalk the other day.
    The closest we have to a prediction is to use Phil's ISS simulator. The
    current version will calculate the expected flight mode and allow the panel
    angle to be put in by hand, by experimenting with the panel angle you can
    confirm if there was a flare off the array for any location/pass. The next
    version will have an additional routine to auto calculate the panel angle to
    follow the sun - we are currently working on this code.
    The simulator is at http://freespace.virgin.net/philip.masding/ISSSim.htm
    Mike Tyrrell
    -----Original Message-----
    From: Patrice Scattolin [mailto:scattol@videotron.ca]
    Sent: 15 December 2001 04:48
    To: SeeSat-L@satobs.org
    Subject: Re: ISS magnitude surge
    Tom Wagner wrote:
    > James,
    > Check out the movie showing a flare off the ISS at
    > http://www.btinternet.com/~mikejtyrrell/iss.htm  It will put much meaning
    > what you saw.
    Are there predictions for these events? Is it even predictable?
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