Decay watch: 2001 December 19

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Dec 19 2001 - 14:43:50 EST

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    SpaceCom has posted the first decay warning for #4802 = Diamant B 
    rocket. At the same time, the decay of #13446 = Molniya 3-19 r2 has 
    slipped drastically. The following is a summary of my newly updated 
    Decay watch page:
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #4802 = 70-109 B = Diamant B rocket
    
    Notice prepared: 2001 Dec 19 19:20 UTC
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Dec 19 03:37     Dec 22 22:37 +-3d        11.9 S   108.1 E
    SatEvo     Dec 19 19:20     Dec 23 08:03 +-1d
    
    Latest elset:
    Diamant B r                                      248 x 245 km
    1 04802U 70109B   01353.70242629  .01973747  30743-2  20096-2 0  6459
    2 04802  14.9859 333.7826 0002556 149.9976 210.0531 16.10240018683504
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page
    
    Note: This low-inclination object enters eclipse near 11 deg N on the
    evening and leaves eclipse near 3 deg S before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #13446 = 82- 83 e = Molniya 3-19 r2
    
    Notice prepared: 2001 Dec 19 19:30 UTC
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Dec 18 16:00     Dec 19 13:43 +-13h       18.4 S   108.1 E
    SatEvo     Dec 19 19:30     Dec 21 13:21 +-15h
    
    Latest elset:
    Molniya 3-19 r2                                  2109 x 84 km
    1 13446U 82083E   01353.69960224  .35918841  20360-4  44215-3 0  6955
    2 13446  62.1641  51.4761 1354046 277.1200  67.7408 13.43491966139344
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page
    
    Note: This decay has been seriously and surprisingly delayed, with the
    drag dropping greatly during the past 24 hours.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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