A summary of the latest info on my Decay watch page, with apologies for
being unable to update it yesterday.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #4802 = 70-109 B = Diamant B rocket
Notice prepared: 2001 Dec 22 12:15 UTC
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Dec 22 09:48 Dec 22 21:29 +-8h 11.9 S 157.9 W
SatEvo Dec 22 12:15 Dec 22 22:03 +-4h 14.3 N 7.2 W
Latest elset:
Diamant B r 189 x 187 km
1 04802U 70109B 01356.41397437 .09753227 -27472-4 16732-2 0 6590
2 04802 14.9909 310.5634 0001581 182.7061 177.3630 16.31755225683944
SatEvo prediction:
Diamant B r 182 x 180 km
1 04802U 70109B 01356.53609157 .12112460 77457-1 15809-2 0 96597
2 04802 14.9906 309.4988 0001675 184.7259 175.2724 16.34394329683965
Diamant B r 160 x 158 km
1 04802U 70109B 01356.77960435 .25309816 44164+0 12613-2 0 96596
2 04802 14.9899 307.3608 0001831 188.7823 171.2142 16.42581624684008
Diamant B r 150 x 148 km
1 04802U 70109B 01356.84024750 .38662474 11739+1 10599-2 0 96595
2 04802 14.9896 306.8236 0001616 189.8017 170.1949 16.46325622684016
Diamant B r 130 x 129 km
1 04802U 70109B 01356.90070375 1.18229739 13928+2 73769-3 0 96590
2 04802 14.9890 306.2841 0001080 190.8253 169.1724 16.53785301684027
Note: My prediction is for this to decay over Africa on the last of
these predicted orbits.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #13446 = 82- 83 e = Molniya 3-19 r2
Notice prepared: 2001 Dec 22 12:00 UTC
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Dec 21 20:49 Dec 21 19:47 +-7m 48.6 S 19.5 W
SatEvo Dec 22 12:00 Dec 21 19:47 +-10m 50.5 S 22.2 W
Final elset:
Molniya 3-19 r2 505 x 75 km
1 13446U 82083E 01355.71059463 .99999999 91145-5 50105-3 0 7188
2 13446 62.1415 44.9914 0322209 277.4558 78.9664 15.94411499139635
Note: My estimated elset for the beginning of the final rev is:
Molniya 3-19 r2 364 x 74 km
1 13446U 82083E 01355.77302392 2.55764201 86315+1 60723-3 0 97180
2 13446 62.1337 44.7378 0220196 277.4808 80.0230 16.20216149139649
I agree with SpaceCom in showing this decaying NE-bound over the
southern Atlantic following perigee on this orbit.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27054 = 01- 57 B = Cosmos 2383 Tsyklon-2 r
Notice prepared: 2001 Dec 22 11:45 UTC
Final decay analysis:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Dec 21 13:42 Dec 21 13:20 +-7m 23.0 N 62.0 E
Final elset:
Cosmos 2383 Tsyklon-2 r 208 x 105 km
1 27054U 01057B 01355.52988887 .99999999 84017-5 66038-3 0 51
2 27054 64.9825 183.3353 0078855 54.5786 306.2732 16.43531437 64
Note: Too little data available for my usual decay analysis.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe'
in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org
http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Dec 22 2001 - 08:32:58 EST