Decay watch: 2003 December 3

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Dec 03 2003 - 16:30:36 EST

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    I have updated my Decay Watch page with the final notice for #1822, the
    Titan 3C Transtage rocket, and SNOE, which I believe is still more than
    a week away from decay, contrary to the interesting report referenced on
    SeeSat-L by Robert Holdsworth. A summary of my postings:
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #1822 = 65- 82 DM = OV2-1/LCS2 Titan 3C Transtage r
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Dec  2 17:39     Dec  2 16:21 +-7m        28.8 S    67.3 W
    SatEvo     Dec  3 21:00     Dec  2 16:05 +-80m        2.5 N   127.2 W
    
    Final elset:
    OV2-1/LCS2 DM    2.8  0.0  0.0  6.1 d  5.4       162 x 161 km
    1 01822U 65082DM  03336.45882631  .13493652 -24141-5  78357-3 0  4658
    2 01822  32.1430  10.1640 0000727 239.5483 120.5257 16.41482216 67853
    
    Note: I have this decaying while southbound over the eastern Pacific
    on the rev given by the SatEvo-predicted elset:
    OV2-1/LCS2 DM    2.8  0.0  0.0  6.1 d  5.4       135 x 134 km
    1 01822U 65082DM  03336.64077356  .72724835  80805+1  61338-3 0 94657
    2 01822  32.1410   8.7493 0000906 241.7075 118.2833 16.51904376 67885
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25233 = 98- 12 A = SNOE
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Not predicted at present
    SatEvo     Dec  3 21:10     Dec 12       +-3d
    
    Latest elset:
    SNOE             2.0  1.0  0.0  7.0 d 0.83       258 x 246 km
    1 25233U 98012A   03337.54063379  .00667749  23267-3  81023-3 0  6523
    2 25233  97.6561 306.8602 0009181 127.9107 232.3007 16.08111191320890
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    SNOE             2.0  1.0  0.0  7.0 d 0.83       256 x 244 km
    1 25233U 98012A   03338.03832631  .00697696  17632-3  80766-3 0 96528
    2 25233  97.6559 307.4370 0008989 125.9381 234.1451 16.08790501320973
    SNOE             2.0  1.0  0.0  7.0 d 0.83       252 x 241 km
    1 25233U 98012A   03339.03310201  .00766524  26105-3  80824-3 0 96520
    2 25233  97.6553 308.5916 0008590 121.9893 238.0942 16.10243460321134
    SNOE             2.0  1.0  0.0  7.0 d 0.83       247 x 236 km
    1 25233U 98012A   03340.02693545  .00854081  33082-3  81027-3 0 96520
    2 25233  97.6547 309.7475 0008164 118.0354 242.0471 16.11850588321291
    
    Note: There is a report at
    http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2003-12/uoca-uoc120103.php
    that NASA is predicting this decay for December 5, or perhaps earlier.
    This does not square with my own prediction, and SCC has yet to post
    decay warnings for this. It enters eclipse over the Arctic and leaves
    eclipse southbound near 32 deg S at about 03:00 local time.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
    
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