Re: Decay Watch: Molniya 3-16

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 1 Feb 1998 15:23:24 +0000

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A further elset has been published for this low perigee decayer:
Molniya 3-16                                     16434 x 108 km
1 12512U 81054A   98031.65522929  .20659122  20737-6  48069-2 0   576
2 12512  62.1611  90.5201 5572430 272.7356 251.7380  4.89691661123704

This is 11.7 minutes *late* on the "9056" evolution in my previous post.

I now get a better SatEvo fit using a Q-factor of 0.45 as in the
following evolution (again after adjusting the eccentricity to bring the
perigee down). This leads to decay at about February 3.5.

Prediction:
Molniya 3-16                                     14513 x 79 km
1 12512U 81054A   98032.50644178  .36907484  62470-1  18270-2 0 90571
2 12512  62.1610  90.0299 5277693 272.7830  30.7977  5.42968320123756
Molniya 3-16                                     14050 x 79 km
1 12512U 81054A   98032.68867279  .40637808  75281-1  19286-2 0 90576
2 12512  62.1610  89.9150 5196230 272.7942  31.5561  5.57078203123767
Molniya 3-16                                     13572 x 79 km
1 12512U 81054A   98032.86620861  .45054541  92438-1  20446-2 0 90575
2 12512  62.1610  89.7987 5109318 272.8054  32.3709  5.72265390123775
Molniya 3-16                                     13078 x 79 km
1 12512U 81054A   98033.03894376  .50356143  11460+0  21812-2 0 90570
2 12512  62.1610  89.6811 5016047 272.8168  33.2511  5.88713056123788
Molniya 3-16                                     12566 x 79 km
1 12512U 81054A   98033.20675522  .56372134  13336+0  23229-2 0 90571
2 12512  62.1610  89.5619 4915625 272.8283  34.2063  6.06596094123796
Molniya 3-16                                     12036 x 79 km
1 12512U 81054A   98033.36952300  .63689061  17059+0  24911-2 0 90573
2 12512  62.1609  89.4409 4807272 272.8400  35.2445  6.26088796123803
Molniya 3-16                                     11483 x 79 km
1 12512U 81054A   98033.52711071  .72901172  22606+0  26947-2 0 90574
2 12512  62.1609  89.3181 4689296 272.8519  36.3845  6.47547147123814
Molniya 3-16                                     10902 x 79 km
1 12512U 81054A   98033.67934249  .84832733  30716+0  29530-2 0 90575
2 12512  62.1609  89.1932 4559305 272.8640  37.6512  6.71465786123829
Molniya 3-16                                     10284 x 79 km
1 12512U 81054A   98033.82598878 1.00836799  44182+0  32806-2 0 90573
2 12512  62.1609  89.0658 4413953 272.8763  39.0810  6.98556370123834
Molniya 3-16                                     9618 x 79 km
1 12512U 81054A   98033.96674479 1.23361586  66800+0  37280-2 0 90574
2 12512  62.1608  88.9356 4248090 272.8889  40.7288  7.29898281123847

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W    156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:      alan@wingar.demon.co.uk       +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/

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