Decay watch: Molniya 3-16

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 4 Feb 1998 20:39:08 +0000

Congratulations to Mike McCants for spotting this.

The most recent elset from OIG is:
Molniya 3-16                                     8988 x 93 km
1 12512U 81054A   98035.53645476  .44624719  48865-5  25863-2 0   770
2 12512  62.1360  87.7537 4073330 273.0448  43.3793  7.61024084123935

Using SatEvo to generate an evolution through elsets over the past day
gives me this alternative for the above rev:
Molniya 3-16                                     8968 x 84 km
1 12512U 81054A   98035.53608857  .56719965  60140-1  21164-2 0 90778
2 12512  62.1360  87.7541 4073500 273.0448  42.3762  7.62494463123937

I now predict decay for February 7.4 +-0.5 day.

Continuing the evolution for the next few hours:
Molniya 3-16                                     8685 x 84 km
1 12512U 81054A   98035.66624334  .59144364  55373-1  21346-2 0 90772
2 12512  62.1360  87.6187 3995623 273.0582  43.1560  7.77572733123948
Molniya 3-16                                     8406 x 84 km
1 12512U 81054A   98035.79387794  .61350494  60026-1  21412-2 0 90773
2 12512  62.1360  87.4818 3916730 273.0717  43.9494  7.92948030123958
Molniya 3-16                                     8131 x 84 km
1 12512U 81054A   98035.91904450  .63710678  65790-1  21503-2 0 90771
2 12512  62.1359  87.3433 3836954 273.0853  44.7551  8.08597155123968
Molniya 3-16                                     7860 x 84 km
1 12512U 81054A   98036.04179423  .66242345  71911-1  21617-2 0 90772
2 12512  62.1359  87.2031 3756187 273.0991  45.5740  8.24544132123978
Molniya 3-16                                     7592 x 84 km
1 12512U 81054A   98036.16217435  .68965521  78963-1  21756-2 0 90779
2 12512  62.1359  87.0614 3674313 273.1131  46.4075  8.40815326123986
Molniya 3-16                                     7327 x 84 km
1 12512U 81054A   98036.28022817  .71903579  87149-1  21923-2 0 90771
2 12512  62.1359  86.9178 3591204 273.1273  47.2568  8.57439834123994
Molniya 3-16                                     7064 x 84 km
1 12512U 81054A   98036.39599523  .75083476  96731-1  22115-2 0 90776
2 12512  62.1358  86.7725 3506725 273.1416  48.1238  8.74449944124001

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W    156m asl
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