Re: Decay watch: Molniya 3-16
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 7 Feb 1998 00:25:01 +0000
My previous posting about this decayer took almost 12 hours to be
reflected on SeeSat-L. Perhaps that was just as well, for the
predictions it carried were useless :-(
The Molniya had been unusually well behaved for at least a day prior to
about February 5.6, with apparently a smooth progression towards decay
on February 7.4. Between February 5.6 and 5.8, however, it appears that
its effective area to mass ratio halved (almost exactly) so that the
calculated lifetime doubled from 1.7 to 3.4 days. There have been minor
apparent fluctuations in drag since then, but none that could not be put
down to changes in the atmosphere or errors in the elsets. The
geomagnetic field has been quiet throughout and the other low satellites
I have checked appear to have been well behaved.
However, I wonder if the anomaly around February 5.7 was due to the loss
of one or both (are there two?) of the Molniya's solar panels which must
be under considerable heating and dynamic strain at such a low perigee.
With its large area to mass ratio, a detached panel would re-enter
almost immediately, while its absence would decrease the effective area
to mass ratio of the remaining satellite.
In any case, the latest elset from OIG is:
Molniya 3-16 4906 x 86 km
1 12512U 81054A 98037.86239761 .59701875 10101-4 14496-2 0 1041
2 12512 62.1368 84.6798 2715545 273.5098 56.2518 10.38511614124143
My current prediction is for decay at about February 9.0.
Prediction for the next few hours:
Molniya 3-16 4771 x 87 km
1 12512U 81054A 98037.95829351 .64373058 70983-1 15992-2 0 91047
2 12512 62.1368 84.5144 2658800 273.5261 56.7873 10.50457417124153
Molniya 3-16 4633 x 87 km
1 12512U 81054A 98038.05309400 .66478251 77446-1 16144-2 0 91041
2 12512 62.1368 84.3474 2601133 273.5426 57.3941 10.62859443124169
Molniya 3-16 4496 x 87 km
1 12512U 81054A 98038.14678636 .68741774 84099-1 16314-2 0 91047
2 12512 62.1367 84.1789 2542466 273.5592 58.0128 10.75525500124176
Molniya 3-16 4358 x 87 km
1 12512U 81054A 98038.23937303 .71182630 91706-1 16500-2 0 91040
2 12512 62.1367 84.0088 2482715 273.5759 58.6444 10.88477265124188
Molniya 3-16 4220 x 87 km
1 12512U 81054A 98038.33085529 .73824053 10047+0 16705-2 0 91043
2 12512 62.1367 83.8371 2421780 273.5929 59.2898 11.01739063124198
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/