Re: Decay watch: Molniya 3-16

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 8 Feb 1998 15:24:22 +0000

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There may have been another step-wise decrease in the drag experienced
by this object. My calculations suggest that a 40% drag decrease
occurred at about February 7.7 (98038.7), the effect of which was to
increase the remaining predicted lifetime from about 1.4 days (decay
about February 9.1) to 2.3 days (decay about February 10.0). I can
satisfy the ten elsets (7 orbits) issued since February 7.7 with a mean
residual of 1.0 second (maximum 3.3 seconds). Could the drag decrease
have been caused by the second solar panel breaking away?

The latest elset from OIG is:
Molniya 3-16                                     2965 x 74 km
1 12512U 81054A   98039.44363597  .71522052  00000-0  59843-3 0  1289
2 12512  62.1219  81.4616 1830302 273.7521  65.7987 12.36932521124344

My SatEvo prediction for the following few hours:
Molniya 3-16                                     2902 x 76 km
1 12512U 81054A   98039.52440167  .63333057  82171-1  58480-3 0 91288
2 12512  62.1163  81.2703 1795959 273.7712  65.9826 12.44226891124357
Molniya 3-16                                     2816 x 76 km
1 12512U 81054A   98039.60455019  .65388543  89760-1  59216-3 0 91280
2 12512  62.1106  81.0775 1750681 273.7905  66.4653 12.54541333124365
Molniya 3-16                                     2728 x 76 km
1 12512U 81054A   98039.68403700  .67619788  98548-1  60017-3 0 91283
2 12512  62.1048  80.8831 1704411 273.8101  66.9593 12.65111033124370
Molniya 3-16                                     2640 x 76 km
1 12512U 81054A   98039.76285667  .70052659  10744+0  60898-3 0 91281
2 12512  62.1003  80.6871 1657056 273.8299  67.4658 12.75959256124380
Molniya 3-16                                     2550 x 76 km
1 12512U 81054A   98039.84100284  .72718410  11930+0  61869-3 0 91284
2 12512  62.0942  80.4894 1608506 273.8500  67.9857 12.87112720124392
Molniya 3-16                                     2460 x 76 km
1 12512U 81054A   98039.91846808  .75654878  13343+0  62937-3 0 91288
2 12512  62.0878  80.2900 1558640 273.8704  68.5206 12.98602356124403
Molniya 3-16                                     2367 x 76 km
1 12512U 81054A   98039.99524372  .78909008  15048+0  64110-3 0 91285
2 12512  62.0813  80.0888 1507315 273.8910  69.0719 13.10464289124419

To be updated this (UK) evening.

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W    156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:      alan@wingar.demon.co.uk       +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/

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