Anomalous elements for 18313 (87 68B) and 25174 (98 10F)
Mike McCants (mikem@fc.net)
Sun, 22 Feb 1998 11:17:14 -0600 (CST)
Older elset for 87 68B (Meteor 2-16 Rk):
1 18313U 87068B 98037.08767116 +.00000036 +00000-0 +19260-4 0 03566
2 18313 082.5539 236.4803 0011606 354.0533 006.0486 13.84031834529200
The latest 5 elsets from OIG are:
elset 1 is consistent with the elset above and with elset 2.
elset 2 is consistent.
1 18313U 87068B 98046.05204316 +.00000053 +00000-0 +34258-4 0 03395
2 18313 082.5527 229.3670 0011136 329.3585 030.6923 13.84031951530447
elset 3 (very small changes)
1 18313U 87068B 98046.99185579 .00000195 00000-0 16184-3 0 3379
2 18313 82.5488 228.6183 0010306 327.1161 32.9520 13.84033926530574
elset 4 (very large changes)
1 18313U 87068B 98048.07636076 .00022249 00000-0 20009-1 0 3387
2 18313 82.5459 227.7651 0009968 330.1422 29.6245 13.83852082530723
elset 5
1 18313U 87068B 98048.65483572 .00011694 00000-0 10524-1 0 3396
2 18313 82.5452 227.3024 0009328 327.7526 32.2728 13.83855825530806
Elset 1 and 2 are normal. Elset 3 shows a small increase in
mean motion and drag and a small decrease in eccentricity.
Elset 4 shows a very large decrease in mean motion and an anomalously
high "drag" term. The time discrepancy between elset 3 and 4 is
about 14 seconds. Elset 4 gives a position that is about 14 seconds
"late" compared to a prediction by elset 3.
Elset 5 is consistent with elset 4.
It is now 98053.7, so elset 5 is now 5 days old.
The most likely explanation is that "the computer made a mistake"
in my opinion. (This has happened in the past.) If so, the
object is still in its original orbit and elsets 4 and 5 represent
either a tiny piece of debris or nothing at all. It might be
interesting to try to determine if any other cataloged object
came close to 87 68B during the time span 46.99 to 48.07.
If this is not a mistake, then something really happened...
-------------
The first two elsets for 98 10F (Iridium 50 Rk) were for the Delta
rocket in an eccentric orbit with an 83.66 degree inclination.
1 25174U 98010F 98049.81924152 .00000000 00000-0 00000+0 0 12
2 25174 83.6670 59.9541 0261081 351.1129 8.6160 15.39798259 25
1 25174U 98010F 98049.88422517 .00000000 00000-0 00000+0 0 28
2 25174 83.6657 59.8975 0261202 350.7763 8.9354 15.39805833 30
Here is an elset with a 90 degree inclination!
1 25174U 98010F 98050.02909590 +.00000062 -20612-6 +00000-0 0 00013
2 25174 090.1162 063.4843 0969290 315.5413 033.6341 14.71666243000061
Here are some elsets for one of the Iridiums?
1 25174U 98010F 98050.02976581 -.00083900 00000-0 -11631-1 0 27
2 25174 86.5665 59.6141 0009571 222.0751 141.5425 14.78555406 67
1 25174U 98010F 98050.29984530 -.00169069 00000-0 -23798-1 0 38
2 25174 86.5483 59.4704 0008870 206.2675 153.9260 14.78435612 103
1 25174U 98010F 98050.43524334 -.00220402 00000-0 -31292-1 0 44
2 25174 86.5466 59.3972 0017626 176.0620 184.2802 14.78287024 126
Here are some elsets for a tiny piece of debris with a very
high drag term?
1 25174U 98010F 98050.50293921 .00595510 00000-0 73614-1 0 55
2 25174 86.5689 59.4219 0005495 293.3234 70.8239 14.80597404 137
1 25174U 98010F 98050.56975590 .00643125 00000-0 78986-1 0 64
2 25174 86.5769 59.3837 0005377 295.1683 64.8978 14.80687628 140
1 25174U 98010F 98051.04265069 +.00971636 +00000-0 +11478-0 0 00154
2 25174 086.5774 059.1895 0006182 274.0708 085.9808 14.81619560000212
1 25174U 98010F 98051.65023644 .01036768 00000-0 11986+0 0 86
2 25174 86.5739 58.9248 0004968 238.3927 121.6818 14.82820840 303
Here are current elsets for the Delta rocket:
1 25174U 98010F 98051.76855221 .00523182 63587-4 36655-2 0 99
2 25174 83.6778 58.2920 0261494 344.7264 14.6431 15.40196387 319
1 25174U 98010F 98051.83351771 .00210027 89272-5 14535-2 0 104
2 25174 83.6779 58.2358 0262501 344.3941 14.9351 15.40203212 335
1 25174U 98010F 98051.83351712 .00085454 54411-6 56656-3 0 113
2 25174 83.6646 58.2173 0266368 344.0278 15.2534 15.40198022 337
1 25174U 98010F 98052.93788756 .00104816 13910-5 69884-3 0 127
2 25174 83.6641 57.2581 0264725 339.7927 19.2992 15.40431980 505
Mike McCants