Decay update: 1998 Feb 25
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 25 Feb 1998 22:55:37 +0000
The OIG elset feed, stalled for a day and a half, resumed this UK
evening although there is a (temporary) gap in my database.
The latest elset for Cosmos 1043...
Cosmos 1043 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.4 v 196 x 191 km
1 11055U 78094A 98056.83905534 .02089836 -93287-6 49347-3 0 5409
2 11055 81.1323 67.7186 0004066 207.0104 153.0952 16.29717111 70858
...shows it 29 seconds early against the last evolution ("9525") I
posted.
My current prediction is for decay at about February 27.7 +-0.3d.
SatEvo elsets:
Cosmos 1043 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.4 v 193 x 188 km
1 11055U 78094A 98057.02317359 .02751112 47634-2 58834-3 0 95406
2 11055 81.1320 67.4638 0003858 206.2822 153.6982 16.30788357 70884
Cosmos 1043 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.4 v 184 x 180 km
1 11055U 78094A 98057.51361999 .03720367 91478-2 58742-3 0 95401
2 11055 81.1309 66.7831 0003239 204.3369 155.6478 16.33910719 70969
Cosmos 1043 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.4 v 172 x 168 km
1 11055U 78094A 98058.00294753 .05936873 25160-1 57789-3 0 95406
2 11055 81.1293 66.1002 0002472 202.3858 157.6034 16.38455294 71041
-----------------------------
The TRMM H-2 rocket, observed by Rob Matson to be running 2 seconds
ahead of my prediction earlier today (and confirmed as such by released
OIG elsets), was only 0.4 second early at the epoch of the latest elset:
TRMM H2 r2 13.5 2.5 0.0 4.2 v 218 x 208 km
1 25066U 97074D 98056.55669774 .04989534 13670-5 19836-2 0 1415
2 25066 34.9869 157.4592 0008113 59.9309 300.2408 16.22471116 14150
Re-entry is due at about February 26.5 +-0.15d according to my latest
analysis. SatEvo elsets to decay:
TRMM H2 r2 13.5 2.5 0.0 4.2 v 197 x 189 km
1 25066U 97074D 98057.04785303 .10383794 67616-1 21571-2 0 91413
2 25066 34.9853 153.8663 0005602 65.0972 294.9610 16.29836470 14234
TRMM H2 r2 13.5 2.5 0.0 4.2 v 193 x 186 km
1 25066U 97074D 98057.10907285 .11786050 88695-1 21497-2 0 91415
2 25066 34.9850 153.4155 0005204 65.7455 294.3088 16.31189784 14240
TRMM H2 r2 13.5 2.5 0.0 4.2 v 188 x 182 km
1 25066U 97074D 98057.17023818 .13674146 12186+0 21377-2 0 91414
2 25066 34.9847 152.9641 0004774 66.3946 293.6554 16.32740825 14254
TRMM H2 r2 13.5 2.5 0.0 4.2 v 183 x 178 km
1 25066U 97074D 98057.23134038 .16365363 17874+0 21180-2 0 91410
2 25066 34.9844 152.5121 0004302 67.0446 293.0007 16.34565524 14261
TRMM H2 r2 13.5 2.5 0.0 4.2 v 177 x 172 km
1 25066U 97074D 98057.29236708 .20539007 28959+0 20845-2 0 91419
2 25066 34.9839 152.0593 0003772 67.6956 292.3442 16.36796584 14275
TRMM H2 r2 13.5 2.5 0.0 4.2 v 169 x 165 km
1 25066U 97074D 98057.35329892 .27974998 55612+0 20224-2 0 91419
2 25066 34.9833 151.6056 0003156 68.3480 291.6854 16.39701876 14287
TRMM H2 r2 13.5 2.5 0.0 4.2 v 157 x 154 km
1 25066U 97074D 98057.41410149 .43092976 12851+1 18136-2 0 91415
2 25066 34.9826 151.1507 0002386 69.0023 291.0230 16.43878388 14291
TRMM H2 r2 13.5 2.5 0.0 4.2 v 135 x 133 km
1 25066U 97074D 98057.47469417 1.24721272 12237+2 10059-2 0 91416
2 25066 34.9813 150.6936 0001198 69.6596 290.3532 16.52132023 14306
-----------------------------
The latest on the CZ-2C platform...
Irid 42 CZ plat 10.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 d 240 x 167 km
1 25080U 97077D 98056.58246920 .03066092 -15544-5 66781-3 0 1689
2 25080 86.1864 78.5181 0055940 204.8875 154.9720 16.25943774 12488
...has it 2.3 seconds late against my previous "9172" evolution.
A new evolution still shows decay at February 27.1 +-0.2d and provides
the following prediction:
Irid 42 CZ plat 10.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 d 225 x 163 km
1 25080U 97077D 98057.01282566 .04512475 10684-1 77273-3 0 91688
2 25080 86.1852 78.2620 0047376 203.0055 156.7815 16.29501398 12554
Irid 42 CZ plat 10.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 d 215 x 160 km
1 25080U 97077D 98057.25831142 .05498168 16893-1 78635-3 0 91688
2 25080 86.1843 78.1153 0041711 201.9274 157.8936 16.31940036 12590
Irid 42 CZ plat 10.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 d 202 x 156 km
1 25080U 97077D 98057.50338801 .07254225 33596-1 68609-3 0 91685
2 25080 86.1832 77.9682 0035157 200.8469 159.0091 16.35017010 12635
Irid 42 CZ plat 10.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 d 180 x 147 km
1 25080U 97077D 98057.80894188 .13022529 11131+0 51866-3 0 91686
2 25080 86.1812 77.7837 0024654 199.4916 160.4139 16.40851236 12689
Irid 42 CZ plat 10.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 d 156 x 136 km
1 25080U 97077D 98057.99159423 .27178175 57581+0 41856-3 0 91683
2 25080 86.1791 77.6723 0015243 198.6745 161.2695 16.47480763 12713
Irid 42 CZ plat 10.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 d 141 x 128 km
1 25080U 97077D 98058.05227022 .48944833 20501+1 41940-3 0 91684
2 25080 86.1779 77.6350 0010375 198.4008 161.5614 16.51812742 12722
Alan (with apologies for the length of this message)
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/